COR
Cencora, Inc.$359.28
Sell
Target $233.38
Report: Mar 08, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Distribution • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$359.28-35.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$233.38
(35% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$377.54
52 Week Low$267.40
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.32M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin3.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin1.0%
LTM EBIT Margin0.8%
LTM Operating Margin0.8%
LTM ROA2.2%
LTM ROE101.4%
LTM ROIC40.8%
LTM ROCE14.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$61.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$67.3B
Shares Outstanding194.22M
Total Debt (MM)$7.92B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.75B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.17B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR10.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR4.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR0.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$408.00
LTM EV/Revenue0.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.6x
LTM EV/EBIT25.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA21.1x
LTM P/E37.6x
LTM EV/FCF18.4x
LTM P/FCF16.7x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B32.0x
Dividend Yield0.7%
Payout Ratio26.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $359.28 versus fair value $233.38 (-35.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on MSO Integration Disappointment Failure to realize expected synergies or margin expansion from the RCA and OneOncology platforms would invalidate the core growth narrative and lead to further goodwill impairments. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Regulatory Reform Proposed PBM and drug pricing reforms could permanently impair the company's pricing power and lead to a structural de-rating of the distribution model. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Expansion into high-margin MSO platforms like RCA and OneOncology could drive significant margin accretion if integrated successfully. Strong specialty pharmaceutical demand and the uptake of GLP-1 therapies provide a robust top-line tailwind, with revenue growing 9.3% to 321.3 billion dollars in fiscal 2025.
Bear Case
Operating margins are razor-thin at 0.8% and are being pressured by low-margin GLP-1 mix and 22% growth in operating expenses. The balance sheet is highly levered with a 508% debt-to-equity ratio and a negative tangible book value, leaving no margin for error in a rising interest rate environment.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
MSO Integration Disappointment Failure to realize expected synergies or margin expansion from the RCA and OneOncology platforms would invali...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
International Segment Recovery Delay Continued underperformance in the International segment, which saw a 14% operating income decline in Q1...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Cencora is relevant for analysis now due to the recent completion of the OneOncology acquisition and the ongoing divestment by Walgreens Boo...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion via Regulatory Reform Proposed PBM and drug pricing reforms could permanently impair the company's pricing power and lead to a...
Concern: High
Financial Solvency and Leverage Risk With a debt-to-equity ratio of 508% and negative tangible book value, any disruption in operating cash...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Weak' due to the massive misalignment between management's public optimism and their personal trading behavior....
Recent Activity
2026-02-05Analyst Target
+6.72%Firm: Evercore ISI Price Target: $420.00 Price When Posted: $354.83 Implied Upside: +18.4%
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.79%Cencora reports Q1 FY2026 revenue of $85.9B, up 5.5% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $4.08, and raises operating income guidance.
2025-05-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.83%Cencora reports fiscal 2025 Q2 results with 10.3% revenue growth and raises adjusted EPS guidance to $15.70-$15.95
2024-01-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.51%Cencora reports Q1 FY2024 revenue of $72.3B, up 15.0% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $3.28, and raises full-year guidance.
2022-05-12SEC Filing (SC 13D/A)
-6.01%Walgreens Boots Alliance Holdings LLC sold 6 million shares of AmerisourceBergen, reducing ownership from 28.1% to 25.2%.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade