CPAY
Corpay, Inc.$337.12
Hold
Target $406.09
Report: Feb 23, 2026Technology • Software - Infrastructure • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$337.12+20.5%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$312.38
(7% below current)
Fair Value
$406.09
(20% above current)
Stop Loss
$185.04
(45% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$361.99
52 Week Low$252.84
Avg. 3 Month Volume672K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin78.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin51.6%
LTM EBIT Margin42.9%
LTM Operating Margin43.0%
LTM ROA5.0%
LTM ROE27.9%
LTM ROIC43.5%
LTM ROCE18.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$19.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$20.8B
Shares Outstanding69.37M
Total Debt (MM)$10.00B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$8.99B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.01B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth13.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR9.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR6.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$362.13
LTM EV/Revenue4.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.8x
LTM EV/EBIT10.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.9x
LTM P/E18.5x
LTM EV/FCF16.0x
LTM P/FCF15.2x
LTM P/TB1.3x
LTM P/B5.1x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $337.12 versus fair value $406.09 (20.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Divestiture of non-core vehicle payment businesses (e.g., PayByPhone and two other units). Bear case centers on Moat erosion in the core vehicle segment due to the EV transition. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
The Corporate Payments segment is a high-growth engine, delivering 16% organic growth and benefiting from the Alpha Group integration. Aggressive share buybacks (21.7% net yield) and a 38.4% ROIC provide a powerful compounding mechanism for EPS.
Bear Case
Moat erosion is evident as gross margins lag peers by 740 basis points, and the legacy fuel card business faces structural headwinds from the EV transition. Regulatory risk is high, with a $500M potential liability from the FTC litigation.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Divestiture of non-core vehicle payment businesses (e.g., PayByPhone and two other units). This simplifies the portfolio and provides up to...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Realization of $1.00 in EPS accretion from the Alpha Group and AvidXChange integrations. This would validate the 'Strategic Rotation' narrat...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Corpay is relevant now because it has just completed its rebranding and is at the peak of its portfolio rotation, with major divestitures an...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion in the core vehicle segment due to the EV transition. As fleets move away from internal combustion engines, the volume and fee-...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory and legal fallout from the FTC injunction. Deceptive billing practices could lead to a permanent loss of pricing power and an est...
Concern: Medium
The governance situation is a complex 'Outcome Tree': 1. Status Quo: Clarke continues to lead while managing the FTC injunction, relying on...
Recent Activity
2026-02-06Market Movement
+5.73%Market/Sector Move +5.73%
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.56%Corpay reports strong Q4 2025 results with 21% revenue growth and raises 2026 guidance.
2025-11-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.23%Corpay reports Q3 2025 revenue growth of 14% with strong organic growth of 11%.
2024-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.63%Corpay reports Q3 2024 revenue surpassing $1 billion with 6% growth and raises 2024 guidance.
2024-08-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.94%Corpay reports Q2 2024 results with 3% revenue growth and Paymerang acquisition closed.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$369
Bear
$606
Bull
$337