CPB
Campbell Soup Company$22.94
Unclear
Target $21.16
Report: Mar 13, 2026Consumer Defensive • Packaged Foods • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$22.94-7.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$16.28
(29% below current)
Fair Value
$21.16
(8% below current)
Stop Loss
$22.41
(2% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$40.59
52 Week Low$20.62
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.45M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin29.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin14.6%
LTM EBIT Margin10.4%
LTM Operating Margin10.4%
LTM ROA3.7%
LTM ROE14.0%
LTM ROIC11.0%
LTM ROCE8.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$6.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$13.2B
Shares Outstanding298.00M
Total Debt (MM)$7.08B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$561.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.51B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-0.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-2.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-11.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$29.20
LTM EV/Revenue1.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.5x
LTM EV/EBIT12.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.0x
LTM P/E12.1x
LTM EV/FCF19.0x
LTM P/FCF9.6x
LTM P/TB1.1x
LTM P/B1.7x
Dividend Yield7.0%
Payout Ratio84.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $22.94 versus fair value $21.16 (-7.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Snacks Segment Margin Recovery: Management expects sequential margin improvement in Q4 FY2026 as they lap the Sovos ERP conversion and resolve Fresh Bakery distribution issues. Bear case centers on Tariff Escalation and Mitigation Failure: Tariffs are projected at 4% of COGS. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Rao's continues to deliver high-teens growth (14.5% in the most recent quarter), providing a high-margin engine for the Meals & Beverages segment. Additionally, the $375M cost-savings program is on track, with $160M already achieved, which should drive margin expansion as transitory tariff and supply chain headwinds subside.
Bear Case
The Snacks segment is facing structural volume declines (down 1% organically) and intense competition from private labels, while the high debt load (4.5x leverage) limits the company's ability to reinvest or return capital to shareholders. Furthermore, potential GLP-1 adoption and regulatory scrutiny on processed foods pose long-term secular risks to the core portfolio.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Snacks Segment Margin Recovery: Management expects sequential margin improvement in Q4 FY2026 as they lap the Sovos ERP conversion and resol...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Deleveraging to 3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA: Reaching this target would allow the company to resume share repurchases and potentially increase the...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Campbell is relevant now because it is trading at a multi-year low of $22.94, a level that historically has signaled an attractive entry for...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Tariff Escalation and Mitigation Failure: Tariffs are projected at 4% of COGS. If the company fails to mitigate at least 60% of this impact...
Concern: Medium
Permanent Moat Erosion in Snacks: Increased competition from private labels and a shift in consumer preference (GLP-1 impact) could lead to...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently in a 'transitional' phase. The governance outcome tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo: Management successfully...
Recent Activity
2025-12-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.23%Campbell's reports first-quarter fiscal 2026 results with 3% net sales decrease and reaffirms full-year guidance
2025-09-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.22%Campbell's reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results with net sales up 1% and adjusted EPS down 2% to $0.62.
2024-12-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.24%Campbell's reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results with 10% net sales increase and reaffirms full-year guidance
2023-12-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.11%Campbell's reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 results in line with expectations and reaffirms full-year guidance.
2023-06-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.91%Campbell's reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 results with 5% net sales increase and reaffirms full-year guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$8
Bear
$21
Base
$33
Bull
$23