CPRT
Copart, Inc.$38.31
Unclear
Target $39.01
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Specialty Business Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$38.31+1.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$30.01
(22% below current)
Fair Value
$39.01
(2% above current)
Stop Loss
$28.60
(25% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$63.85
52 Week Low$32.20
Avg. 3 Month Volume9.38M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin45.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin42.3%
LTM EBIT Margin37.6%
LTM Operating Margin36.5%
LTM ROA15.2%
LTM ROE16.7%
LTM ROIC33.4%
LTM ROCE18.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$32.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$27.0B
Shares Outstanding967.21M
Total Debt (MM)$96.14M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.10B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-5.01B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-2.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR9.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR12.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$40.50
LTM EV/Revenue5.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit12.9x
LTM EV/EBIT15.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.8x
LTM P/E20.5x
LTM EV/FCF18.6x
LTM P/FCF22.1x
LTM P/TB3.2x
LTM P/B3.3x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $38.31 versus fair value $39.01 (1.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Acceleration of AI adoption in Title Express and IntelliSeller. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from secular insurance volume decline due to ADAS accident reduction. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Rising vehicle complexity and repair costs are driving total loss frequency higher, increasing the volume of salvage vehicles even as accident rates stabilize. Additionally, international buyers pay a 38% premium over domestic buyers, providing a structural tailwind for ASP growth.
Bear Case
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) may permanently reduce accident frequency, leading to a secular decline in salvage volumes. Furthermore, the rising cost of processing EV batteries and SG&A inflation (up 20% in FY2025) could pressure long-term margins.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Acceleration of AI adoption in Title Express and IntelliSeller. This addresses market concerns about margin pressure by driving cycle times...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Stabilization and re-acceleration of insurance unit volumes. Positive volume growth would refute the secular bear case of ADAS-driven declin...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Copart is relevant for analysis now as it trades near its 52-week low following a period of insurance volume softness, providing a rare oppo...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from secular insurance volume decline due to ADAS accident reduction. This risk impairs the thesis by permanently reducing the...
Concern: Low
Rising costs of processing Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries. EV batteries are more difficult to transport and recycle, which could lead to hi...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong, characterized by a Status Quo path where the current management team executes its long-term land and tech...
Recent Activity
2025-05-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.52%Copart reports Q3 FY2025 financial results
2024-11-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.19%Copart reports Q1 FY2025 financial results
2024-09-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.67%Copart reports Q4 FY2024 financial results
2023-05-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.78%Copart reports Q3 FY2023 financial results
2022-05-18Analyst Estimate
-6.10%EPS Beat/Miss: +0.0% - Actual: $0.29 - Estimated: $0.29 Revenue Beat/Miss: +8.9% - Actual: $939,941,000 - Estimated: $862,953,860
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade