CRM
Salesforce, Inc.$194.79
Unclear
Target $183.44
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$194.79-5.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$141.11
(28% below current)
Fair Value
$183.44
(6% below current)
Stop Loss
$174.57
(10% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$296.05
52 Week Low$174.57
Avg. 3 Month Volume12.52M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin77.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin31.7%
LTM EBIT Margin22.9%
LTM Operating Margin20.1%
LTM ROA7.4%
LTM ROE12.4%
LTM ROIC53.9%
LTM ROCE12.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$172.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$182.1B
Shares Outstanding935.00M
Total Debt (MM)$17.18B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$7.33B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$9.85B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth9.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR9.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR43.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR234.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$287.00
LTM EV/Revenue4.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.6x
LTM EV/EBIT19.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.9x
LTM P/E23.1x
LTM EV/FCF12.6x
LTM P/FCF12.0x
LTM P/TB3.9x
LTM P/B2.9x
Dividend Yield0.9%
Payout Ratio21.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $194.79 versus fair value $183.44 (-5.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Agentforce scaling with 120+ AELAs in Q4 FY26 and Flex Credits in 50% bookings, addressing growth deceleration concerns by validating AI moat (330% ARR YoY) and cross-sell (75% top deals). Bear case centers on Moat erosion from AI-native competitors like Microsoft Copilot permanently impairing pricing power, slowing growth below 5% and compressing ROIC from 48.9%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Agentforce/Data 360 ARR surges (330%/120% YoY) validate moat expansion, with 75% top-100 deals including both and 29,000 Agentforce deployments; 48.9% ROIC and $12.9B FCF support compounding via $50B buybacks; guidance raised FY27 revenue to $45.8-46.2B (10-11% growth).
Bear Case
GAAP margins flat at 20.5% despite AI claims, negative incremental ROIC -72.1% from $19.2B M&A (0.4x effective); $76.9M net insider selling (534 sales vs 5 buys); growth deceleration to 8.4% YoY amid Copilot competition.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Agentforce scaling with 120+ AELAs in Q4 FY26 and Flex Credits in 50% bookings, addressing growth deceleration concerns by validating AI moa...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
$50B buyback execution at current 14.2x P/FCF, shifting sentiment on capital returns amid stock dislocation (recent OppScore 97/100). Valida...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 FY26 earnings raised FY27 guidance to 10-11% growth and op margin to 34.3% non-GAAP, with Agentforce momentum, making now pivotal...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from AI-native competitors like Microsoft Copilot permanently impairing pricing power, slowing growth below 5% and compressing...
Concern: High
Persistent value-destructive M&A eroding returns, as $19.2B spend yielded 0.4x effectiveness.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate: exceptional track record offset by net $76.9M insider selling and M&A flaws, but buyback discipline (10.6% yield) a...
Recent Activity
2025-04-24SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
+5.68%Salesforce files definitive proxy statement for 2023 annual meeting.
2024-12-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.99%Salesforce reports Q3 FY25 revenue of $9.44B, up 8% Y/Y, with record operating margins and strong cash flow.
2024-09-19Analyst Target
+5.37%Firm: Barclays Analyst: Raimo Lenschow Price Target: $305.00 Price When Posted: $252.43 Implied Upside: +20.8%
2024-05-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-19.74%Salesforce reports Q1 FY25 results with strong cash flow and updates guidance.
2023-11-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.36%Salesforce reports strong Q3 FY2024 results with 11% revenue growth and raises full-year guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$152
Bear
$192
Base
$221
Bull
$195