CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.$425.69
Sell
Target $232.73
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Infrastructure • Early-Stage HypergrowthSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$425.69-45.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$232.73
(45% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$566.90
52 Week Low$298.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.89M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin74.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin4.1%
LTM EBIT Margin-2.1%
LTM Operating Margin-6.1%
LTM ROA-1.7%
LTM ROE-4.2%
LTM ROIC-13.1%
LTM ROCE-1.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$99.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$94.6B
Shares Outstanding252.59M
Total Debt (MM)$820.08M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.23B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-4.41B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-22.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth21.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR29.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$536.69
LTM EV/Revenue19.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit26.3x
LTM EV/EBIT-943.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA477.0x
LTM P/E-609.3x
LTM EV/FCF76.2x
LTM P/FCF79.8x
LTM P/TB10.3x
LTM P/B22.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $425.69 versus fair value $232.73 (-45.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Delta Air Lines Litigation Resolution Court rulings or settlements regarding the $500 million claim will validate or refute the 'gross negligence' narrative. Bear case centers on Structural Growth Deceleration As the company reaches a $5 billion ARR scale, the law of large numbers and market saturation in endpoint security make 30%+ growth increasingly difficult to sustain. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Bulls argue that the $10 billion ARR target by FY31 is achievable through Falcon Flex adoption and that the 97% gross retention rate proves the platform's 'stickiness' despite the 2024 outage.
Bear Case
Bears point to the 21.9% SBC-to-revenue ratio as a permanent headwind to GAAP profitability and argue that a 21.6x EV/Sales multiple is indefensible for a company with decelerating growth and negative ROIC.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Delta Air Lines Litigation Resolution Court rulings or settlements regarding the $500 million claim will validate or refute the 'gross negli...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
SBC Normalization or Reduction A shift in compensation strategy to reduce the 21.9% revenue drag would be a major positive, but is unlikely...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
CrowdStrike is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a 45% premium to its reliability-adjusted fair value just as its core grow...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Structural Growth Deceleration As the company reaches a $5 billion ARR scale, the law of large numbers and market saturation in endpoint sec...
Concern: High
Excessive Shareholder Dilution The persistent use of SBC to fund operations dilutes existing shareholders and masks the true cost of labor.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is negative due to the misalignment between executive compensation and shareholder value. 50% of LTI awards are tied...
Recent Activity
2026-02-20Analyst Target
-7.95%Firm: Barclays Price Target: $550.00 Price When Posted: $422.14 Implied Upside: +30.3%
2025-09-18Analyst Target
+12.82%Firm: BMO Capital Price Target: $500.00 Price When Posted: $442.29 Implied Upside: +13.0%
2025-06-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.77%CrowdStrike reports Q1 FY2026 results with record ARR and cash flow, announces $1B share repurchase
2025-03-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.34%CrowdStrike reports Q4 FY2025 results with 25% revenue growth and $4.24B ARR
2025-02-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.75%CrowdStrike announces retirement of Chief Security Officer Shawn Henry
Valuation Table
9.5/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$164
Bear
$256
Base
$297
Bull
$426