CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc.$31.03
Hold
Target $37.95
Report: Mar 09, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$31.03+22.3%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$29.19
(6% below current)
Fair Value
$37.95
(22% above current)
Stop Loss
$25.00
(19% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$36.88
52 Week Low$22.33
Avg. 3 Month Volume11.55M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin67.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin63.3%
LTM EBIT Margin32.3%
LTM Operating Margin32.1%
LTM ROA7.1%
LTM ROE11.8%
LTM ROIC9.3%
LTM ROCE11.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$26.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$30.4B
Shares Outstanding761.00M
Total Debt (MM)$3.82B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$119.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.70B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth40.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-5.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-11.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-23.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$32.40
LTM EV/Revenue4.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.9x
LTM EV/EBIT12.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.3x
LTM P/E15.5x
LTM EV/FCF18.6x
LTM P/FCF16.3x
LTM P/TB1.1x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield2.5%
Payout Ratio39.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $31.03 versus fair value $37.95 (22.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of the 58 billion Devon Energy merger. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer commodity prices, particularly oil below 50 per barrel. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Transitional (12-24 Months) horizon.
Bull Case
The Devon merger creates massive scale and 2 billion in annual synergies; LNG export capacity expansion to 10 Bcf/d by 2027 provides a structural floor for Marcellus gas; Permian oil pivot drives superior margins and cash conversion.
Bear Case
Prolonged gas oversupply and Marcellus takeaway constraints force continued production curtailments; oil prices falling below 50 per barrel would impair the 10.6% incremental ROIC; significant insider selling at an average price of 26.11 signals a lack of personal conviction.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Completion of the 58 billion Devon Energy merger. This event will fundamentally change the company's scale and Delaware Basin dominance, lik...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Inflection in Marcellus gas demand from new LNG terminals. As Cove Point and other new deals come online, Coterra will likely uncurtail prod...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Coterra is at a critical juncture as it prepares to close the Devon merger, making the next two quarters essential for monitoring integratio...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-longer commodity prices, particularly oil below 50 per barrel. This would impair the returns on the recent 4 billion Permian acqui...
Concern: High
Merger integration failure or synergy shortfall. If the Devon merger fails to deliver the projected 2 billion in annual synergies, the all-s...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is currently in a transition phase. The Governance Outcome Tree is as follows: 1. Status Quo: The Devon merger close...
Recent Activity
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.99%Coterra Energy reports Q3 2025 results, declares $0.22 dividend, and updates 2025 guidance
2025-05-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.26%Coterra Energy reports Q1 2025 results with production beat and announces capital reallocation strategy
2024-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.06%Coterra Energy reports Q3 2024 results with production beats and announces three new LNG agreements.
2024-08-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.08%Coterra Energy reports Q2 2024 results with increased production guidance and declares $0.21 quarterly dividend.
2023-02-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.06%Coterra Energy reports strong 2022 results and announces increased dividend and new share repurchase authorization
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade