CTVA
Corteva, Inc.$76.59
Unclear
Target $76.12
Report: Mar 13, 2026Basic Materials • Agricultural Inputs • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$76.59-0.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$58.55
(24% below current)
Fair Value
$76.12
(1% below current)
Stop Loss
$43.22
(44% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$84.00
52 Week Low$53.40
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.14M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin47.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin17.0%
LTM EBIT Margin10.1%
LTM Operating Margin14.0%
LTM ROA2.6%
LTM ROE4.4%
LTM ROIC13.2%
LTM ROCE5.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$56.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$54.4B
Shares Outstanding672.52M
Total Debt (MM)$2.58B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.52B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.94B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-0.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR3.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR0.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$85.00
LTM EV/Revenue3.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.6x
LTM EV/EBIT30.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.4x
LTM P/E51.5x
LTM EV/FCF19.3x
LTM P/FCF20.0x
LTM P/TB2.3x
LTM P/B2.3x
Dividend Yield0.8%
Payout Ratio44.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $76.59 versus fair value $76.12 (-0.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Completion of the business separation into two independent public companies. Bear case centers on Moat erosion in the Crop Protection segment due to competitive pricing and generic entry in Brazil. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Record free cash flow generation of $2.9B in FY2025 supports aggressive capital returns; the Bayer settlement provides a $1B earnings tailwind over the next decade; the 2026 separation will create a high-margin, pure-play seed compounder.
Bear Case
Execution risk of the 2026 separation could lead to $100M in annual net dissynergies; structural pricing pressure in Brazil crop protection threatens margin sustainability; current valuation at 18.3x P/FCF leaves no room for cyclical disappointments.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Completion of the business separation into two independent public companies. This will allow the market to value the high-margin Seed busine...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Acceleration of corn and cotton licensing income following the Bayer settlement. This validates the 'royalty neutrality' goal and provides a...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Corteva is at a critical juncture as it begins the formal execution phase of its business separation while simultaneously integrating the be...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion in the Crop Protection segment due to competitive pricing and generic entry in Brazil. If Corteva cannot maintain its 10-15% ma...
Concern: Low
Execution risk and dissynergies related to the 2026 separation. The split is estimated to create $80-100M in annual net dissynergies, which...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by a board with deep agricultural expertise (including the former CEO of Cargill and former President o...
Recent Activity
2025-10-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.11%Corteva announces plan to separate into two independent public companies - New Corteva (Crop Protection) and SpinCo (Seed)
2025-05-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.01%Corteva reports strong first quarter 2025 results and reaffirms full-year guidance
2024-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.02%Corteva reports Q3 2024 results with 10% net sales decline, updates full-year guidance
2024-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.53%Corteva reports second quarter and first half 2024 results and updates full-year guidance
2024-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.69%Corteva reports first quarter 2024 results and reaffirms 2024 guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$51
Bear
$91
Bull
$77