D
Dominion Energy, Inc.$63.00
Sell
Target $55.16
Report: Mar 10, 2026Utilities • Regulated Electric • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$63.00-12.4%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$55.16
(12% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$67.57
52 Week Low$48.07
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.56M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin44.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin49.9%
LTM EBIT Margin33.6%
LTM Operating Margin26.7%
LTM ROA2.7%
LTM ROE10.8%
LTM ROIC3.9%
LTM ROCE5.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$54.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$103.0B
Shares Outstanding878.79M
Total Debt (MM)$48.94B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$250.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$48.69B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth14.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-1.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR17.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR47.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$66.00
LTM EV/Revenue6.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit14.1x
LTM EV/EBIT18.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.5x
LTM P/E18.1x
LTM EV/FCF-14.1x
LTM P/FCF-7.5x
LTM P/TB0.5x
LTM P/B1.9x
Dividend Yield4.3%
Payout Ratio77.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $63.0 versus fair value $55.16 (-12.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Resolution of the CVOW Stop-Work Order. Bear case centers on Permanent Impairment of CVOW. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 48 GW data center pipeline provides unprecedented, high-visibility load growth that will drive a 10% CAGR in the investment base. Successful completion of CVOW will solidify Dominion's position as a leader in regulated renewable energy, attracting ESG-focused institutional capital.
Bear Case
Persistent negative free cash flow (-$7.3B TTM) and a 168% debt-to-equity ratio leave the company vulnerable to interest rate volatility and execution delays. The 2.1% ROIC is fundamentally value-destructive given the 10% cost of capital, meaning every dollar of new investment erodes shareholder value.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Resolution of the CVOW Stop-Work Order. A favorable ruling in the federal lawsuit against the Department of the Interior would allow constru...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
South Carolina Rate Case Outcome. A constructive regulatory ruling in South Carolina would provide incremental cash flow and validate the co...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Dominion is at a critical juncture as it attempts to defend its $65 billion capital plan against a backdrop of rising national security conc...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Permanent Impairment of CVOW. If the federal stop-work order is not lifted, the company may be forced to write down a significant portion of...
Concern: High
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Leverage. With $48.9 billion in debt and a 168% debt-to-equity ratio, sustained high interest rates will incre...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board possesses elite utility experience-notably Lead Director Susan Story, who delivered 200% T...
Recent Activity
2025-04-09Market Movement
+5.22%Market/Sector Move +5.22%
2024-03-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.36%Dominion Energy hosts investor meeting to discuss business review outcomes and long-term strategy.
2023-11-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.16%Dominion Energy provides business review update and reports Q3 2023 earnings.
2022-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.24%Dominion Energy reports Q3 2022 earnings and initiates comprehensive business review to maximize long-term shareholder value.
Valuation Table
8.2/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$55
Base
$63
Bull
$63