DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corporation$115.73
Unclear
Target $126.57
Report: Feb 23, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Apparel - Footwear & Accessories • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$115.73+9.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$97.36
(16% below current)
Fair Value
$126.57
(9% above current)
Stop Loss
$77.89
(33% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$133.43
52 Week Low$78.91
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.61M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin57.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin26.5%
LTM EBIT Margin25.1%
LTM Operating Margin23.8%
LTM ROA27.2%
LTM ROE41.4%
LTM ROIC99.5%
LTM ROCE47.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$14.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$12.5B
Shares Outstanding144.08M
Total Debt (MM)$342.88M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.09B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1.74B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-1.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth9.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR14.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR27.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR31.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$119.00
LTM EV/Revenue2.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.0x
LTM EV/EBIT9.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.7x
LTM P/E13.7x
LTM EV/FCF13.4x
LTM P/FCF15.3x
LTM P/TB3.5x
LTM P/B5.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $115.73 versus fair value $126.57 (9.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on HOKA mid-teens FY2026 growth and UGG mid-single digits per Q3 raise, validating moat durability and countering tariff fears via pricing power (59.8% Q3 gross margin). Bear case centers on Tariff escalation erodes pricing power, compressing gross margins from 57.9% FY2025 via Vietnam/China exposure (67% production). Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
HOKA/UGG brands deliver 99.5% ROIC and 23.8% margins above peers; $2.5B buybacks yield 16.8%; guidance raised to mid-teens HOKA growth.
Bear Case
Tariffs compress margins (Q1 FY2026 -110bps to 55.8%); growth slowed to 9.2% TTM; net insider selling $4.66M.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
HOKA mid-teens FY2026 growth and UGG mid-single digits per Q3 raise, validating moat durability and countering tariff fears via pricing powe...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Deckers compounds value through premium brands delivering superior ROIC and margins, unlocked by HOKA's global growth catalysts, and protect...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q3 beat (+19% stock reaction) and guidance raise amid falling short interest (2.2% float) make now pivotal for moat-reinforcing senti...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Tariff escalation erodes pricing power, compressing gross margins from 57.9% FY2025 via Vietnam/China exposure (67% production).
Concern: Medium
Tariff erosion -4ppt growth, -300bps margins: $93.78/share.
Concern: Medium
Strong stewardship: 90% independent board with financial expertise (Audit Chair Figuereo), clawback policy; capital alloc exceptional (buyba...
Recent Activity
2026-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+19.46%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 DECKERS BRANDS REPORTS THIRD QUARTER FISCAL YEAR 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS • THIRD QUARTER FY 2026 REVENUE INCREASED 7% TO A RECORD $1.96 BILLION • THIRD QUARTER FY 2026 DILUTED EPS...
2025-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-15.21%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 DECKERS BRANDS REPORTS SECOND QUARTER FISCAL YEAR 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS • SECOND QUARTER FY 2026 REVENUE INCREASED 9% TO $1.43 BILLION • SECOND QUARTER FY 2026 DILUTED EPS...
2025-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.35%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 DECKERS BRANDS REPORTS FIRST QUARTER FISCAL YEAR 2026 FINANCIAL RESULTS • FIRST QUARTER FY 2026 REVENUE INCREASED 17% TO $965 MILLION • FIRST QUARTER FY 2026 DILUTED EPS INCREASED...
2025-05-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-19.86%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 DECKERS BRANDS REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL FISCAL YEAR 2025 FINANCIAL RESULTS • FY 2025 REVENUE INCREASED 16% TO A RECORD $4.99 BILLION • FY 2025 DILUTED EPS INCREASED 30% TO...
2025-01-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-20.51%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 DECKERS BRANDS REPORTS THIRD QUARTER FISCAL YEAR 2025 FINANCIAL RESULTS • THIRD QUARTER FY 2025 REVENUE INCREASED 17% TO A RECORD $1.83 BILLION • THIRD QUARTER FY 2025 DILUTED EPS...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$94
Bear
$129
Base
$148
Bull
$116