DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.$153.55
Buy
Target $265.69
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Computer Hardware • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$153.55+73.0%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$153.55
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$265.69
(73% above current)
Stop Loss
$119.17
(22% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$186.39
52 Week Low$66.25
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.72M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin20.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin9.8%
LTM EBIT Margin7.2%
LTM Operating Margin7.2%
LTM ROA6.5%
LTM ROE-218.2%
LTM ROIC24.6%
LTM ROCE22.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$106.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$126.0B
Shares Outstanding645.75M
Total Debt (MM)$31.50B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$11.53B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$19.98B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth18.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR7.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR38.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$164.45
LTM EV/Revenue1.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.5x
LTM EV/EBIT15.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.3x
LTM P/E17.9x
LTM EV/FCF14.7x
LTM P/FCF12.4x
LTM P/TB1.4x
LTM P/B-42.9x
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout Ratio23.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $153.55 versus fair value $265.69 (73.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of 18.4 Billion Dollar AI Backlog Conversion of the record backlog into revenue will validate the AI growth narrative and provide the cash flow necessary to sustain aggressive buybacks. Bear case centers on Margin Dilution from AI Server Mix AI servers carry lower gross margins than traditional storage. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
Dell captures 20% of the rapidly expanding AI server market, leveraging its 18.4 billion dollar backlog to drive 19% revenue growth; high-margin storage and services attach rates normalize operating margins toward 8.0%.
Bear Case
AI server margins remain structurally dilutive, keeping gross margins near 20.0%; the PC refresh cycle fails to materialize, leaving the Client Solutions Group stagnant amid rising commodity costs for DRAM and NAND.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Realization of 18.4 Billion Dollar AI Backlog Conversion of the record backlog into revenue will validate the AI growth narrative and provid...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Windows 11 PC Refresh Cycle The aging installed base of commercial PCs, combined with the Windows 10 end-of-life, creates a durable demand t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Dell is at a critical inflection point following record fiscal 2026 results that proved its AI infrastructure scale, yet the stock remains u...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Margin Dilution from AI Server Mix AI servers carry lower gross margins than traditional storage. If Dell fails to attach high-margin servic...
Concern: Medium
Commodity Cost Volatility Rising costs for DRAM and NAND can squeeze margins if Dell cannot pass these costs through to customers in a timel...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong but highly centralized. The governance outcome tree is dominated by Michael Dell's vision. 1. Status Quo: The current...
Recent Activity
2026-02-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+21.93%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Dell Technologies Delivers Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Results ROUND ROCK, Texas — February 26, 2026 — Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) announces financial results for its fiscal 2026...
2025-11-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.83%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Dell Technologies Delivers Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Financial Results ROUND ROCK, Texas — November 25, 2025 — Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) announces financial results for its fiscal 2026 third...
2025-10-09Analyst Target
-5.21%Firm: Argus Research Analyst: Jim Kelleher Price Target: $200.00 Price When Posted: $157.09 Implied Upside: +27.3%
2025-10-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.05%Dell Technologies holds securities analyst meeting to discuss AI opportunities and long-term strategy
2025-08-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.88%Dell Technologies Q2 FY2026 revenue up 19% to $29.8 billion
Valuation Table
9.4/10Decision Grade