DIS
The Walt Disney Company$103.30
Sell
Target $79.66
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Entertainment • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$103.30-22.9%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$79.66
(23% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$124.69
52 Week Low$80.10
Avg. 3 Month Volume11.74M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin37.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin18.4%
LTM EBIT Margin12.8%
LTM Operating Margin13.5%
LTM ROA6.2%
LTM ROE11.3%
LTM ROIC14.2%
LTM ROCE7.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$170.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$211.7B
Shares Outstanding1.79B
Total Debt (MM)$46.64B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.68B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$40.96B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR15.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR55.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$139.33
LTM EV/Revenue2.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.9x
LTM EV/EBIT17.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.0x
LTM P/E13.9x
LTM EV/FCF30.0x
LTM P/FCF24.2x
LTM P/TB2.0x
LTM P/B1.6x
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout Ratio18.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $103.3 versus fair value $79.66 (-22.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Achievement of 10% Operating Margin in Entertainment DTC. Bear case centers on Accelerated Erosion of Linear TV Affiliate Fees. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Streaming profitability is scaling rapidly with a target of 10% margins in FY2026; Experiences segment continues to deliver record operating income through pricing power; aggressive capital return includes a 7 billion dollar buyback target for FY2026.
Bear Case
Linear TV erosion is accelerating, threatening high-margin affiliate fees; capital expenditures have jumped to 8.5% of revenue, outpacing growth; the current 12.7x EV/EBITDA multiple represents a premium that fundamentals do not support.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Achievement of 10% Operating Margin in Entertainment DTC. This would validate management's claim of a sustainable, high-margin streaming bus...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Execution of 7 Billion Dollar Share Repurchase Program. Doubling the buyback size from FY2025 will provide significant EPS support and signa...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Disney is at a critical juncture as it transitions from a period of intense restructuring to a phase of aggressive capital deployment and le...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Accelerated Erosion of Linear TV Affiliate Fees. The structural decline of cable television reduces the high-margin cash flow that Disney us...
Concern: Medium
Capital Expenditure Execution Risk. With 8.0 billion dollars committed to park expansions and new cruise ships, any delay or cost overrun co...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong, but the upcoming leadership transition is the critical pivot point. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests:...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.31%Walt Disney prices $4.5 billion debt offering
2025-11-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.75%Walt Disney extends CFO Hugh Johnston's employment through 2029
2025-05-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.76%Walt Disney reports Q2 2025 earnings with strong growth
2025-03-11SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-5.03%Walt Disney Company files definitive additional proxy materials for 2024 annual meeting
2024-11-15Analyst Target
+5.46%Firm: Deutsche Bank Analyst: Bryan Kraft Price Target: $131.00 Price When Posted: $109.12 Implied Upside: +20.1%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade