DOC
Healthpeak Properties, Inc.$17.41
Hold
Target $19.31
Report: Mar 10, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Healthcare Facilities • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$17.41+10.9%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$14.85
(15% below current)
Fair Value
$19.31
(11% above current)
Stop Loss
$11.50
(34% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic (2-3 Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$20.40
52 Week Low$15.71
Avg. 3 Month Volume9.20M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin60.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin49.9%
LTM EBIT Margin13.7%
LTM Operating Margin18.4%
LTM ROA0.4%
LTM ROE0.9%
LTM ROIC1.4%
LTM ROCE1.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$11.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$21.0B
Shares Outstanding694.96M
Total Debt (MM)$10.14B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$537.70M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$9.61B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR0.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-52.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$18.00
LTM EV/Revenue7.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit12.4x
LTM EV/EBIT54.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.9x
LTM P/E162.0x
LTM EV/FCF102.4x
LTM P/FCF55.6x
LTM P/TB0.6x
LTM P/B1.5x
Dividend Yield8.1%
Payout Ratio1330.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $17.41 versus fair value $19.31 (10.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Janus Living IPO and Spin-off Management plans to spin off the senior housing portfolio into a pure-play REIT. Bear case centers on Interest Rate and Refinancing Risk With 10.1 billion dollars in debt and a debt-to-equity ratio of 135%, the company is highly sensitive to interest rates. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Strategic (2-3 Years) horizon.
Bull Case
The outpatient medical portfolio is a fortress, with 91% occupancy and 5% cash re-leasing spreads providing highly predictable income. The Janus Living spin-off will simplify the narrative and potentially unlock a higher multiple for the remaining 'pure-play' healthcare discovery assets. Management has already exceeded merger synergy targets, delivering 70 million dollars against an initial 40 million dollar goal.
Bear Case
High leverage of 135% debt-to-equity and a low interest coverage ratio of 1.3x leave the company vulnerable to sustained high interest rates. The lab segment is facing a supply glut in core markets like San Francisco, which could delay the stabilization of the Gateway campus and further erode the 2.5% net margin.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Janus Living IPO and Spin-off Management plans to spin off the senior housing portfolio into a pure-play REIT. This addresses the market's c...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Gateway Campus Stabilization Leasing up the 1.4 million square foot Gateway campus from its current high vacancy to 85% occupancy would vali...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Healthpeak is relevant now because it has reached a technical and fundamental inflection point following the Physicians Realty merger integr...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Interest Rate and Refinancing Risk With 10.1 billion dollars in debt and a debt-to-equity ratio of 135%, the company is highly sensitive to...
Concern: Medium
Life Science Oversupply Concentration in San Francisco and Boston biotech clusters exposes the company to regional oversupply. If lab occupa...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently in a 'Transition' phase. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo, where the Janus Living sp...
Recent Activity
2025-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.73%Healthpeak Properties reports Q2 2025 financial results
2025-04-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.21%Healthpeak Properties appoints Kelvin Moses as Chief Financial Officer
2024-07-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.49%Healthpeak Properties reports Q2 2024 financial results
Valuation Table
8.0/10Decision Grade