DOV
Dover Corporation$226.40
Unclear
Target $209.59
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Industrial - Machinery • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$226.40-7.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$161.22
(29% below current)
Fair Value
$209.59
(7% below current)
Stop Loss
$143.04
(37% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$237.54
52 Week Low$143.04
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.28M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin39.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.0%
LTM EBIT Margin18.3%
LTM Operating Margin17.0%
LTM ROA8.3%
LTM ROE14.8%
LTM ROIC27.5%
LTM ROCE13.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$28.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$29.8B
Shares Outstanding135.98M
Total Debt (MM)$3.33B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.68B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.65B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-1.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-1.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR2.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR2.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$223.70
LTM EV/Revenue3.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.2x
LTM EV/EBIT20.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.0x
LTM P/E25.7x
LTM EV/FCF26.6x
LTM P/FCF25.2x
LTM P/TB4.5x
LTM P/B3.8x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio26.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $226.4 versus fair value $209.59 (-7.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of 40M in carryover restructuring benefits in FY2026. Bear case centers on Permanent operating margin erosion due to structural SG&A bloat. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Secular tailwinds in AI data center cooling and biopharma now represent 20% of revenue and are growing at double-digit rates. Record free cash flow of 1.12B provides ample dry powder for margin-accretive bolt-on M&A. Disciplined capital allocation has reduced share count at a 5.4% CAGR while maintaining a fortress balance sheet (0.9x Net Debt/EBITDA).
Bear Case
Operating margins have collapsed from 23.3% to 17.0% as SG&A expenses rose to 22.8% of revenue. Organic revenue growth of 1.6% is stagnant and fails to justify a premium forward multiple of 18-19x. Massive insider selling, including a 26% stake reduction by the CEO, suggests management believes the stock is fully valued.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of 40M in carryover restructuring benefits in FY2026. This is critical to validating management's margin expansion narrative and...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Acceleration of data center liquid cooling bookings. As this high-margin segment grows, it should drive a favorable mix shift and support hi...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Dover is at a critical inflection point where the success of its multi-year portfolio transformation is being tested by significant operatin...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Permanent operating margin erosion due to structural SG&A bloat. If the company cannot contain overhead, the ROIC-WACC spread will narrow, d...
Concern: Medium
Cyclical downturn in legacy segments (Refrigeration and Vehicle Services) overwhelming secular growth. A macro slowdown could lead to volume...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently rated as Adequate. While the board is highly independent and the capital allocation framework is disciplined, the c...
Recent Activity
2025-10-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.12%Dover reports Q3 2025 results with 5% revenue growth and raises full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.50-$9.60.
2025-04-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.10%Dover Corporation entered into a $500 million 364-day revolving credit facility with twelve banks.
2024-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.67%Dover Corporation reported second quarter 2024 financial results.
2023-12-14Press Release
+5.42%Caldera Announces New Rip Software Version 17
2023-01-31SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.95%Dover reports Q4 and full year 2022 results with 8% revenue growth and provides 2023 guidance.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade