DPZ
Domino's Pizza, Inc.$403.62
Unclear
Target $429.31
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Restaurants • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$403.62+6.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$330.24
(18% below current)
Fair Value
$429.31
(6% above current)
Stop Loss
$264.19
(35% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$499.08
52 Week Low$346.31
Avg. 3 Month Volume923K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin40.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin21.4%
LTM EBIT Margin19.6%
LTM Operating Margin19.3%
LTM ROA34.1%
LTM ROE-15.3%
LTM ROIC18.6%
LTM ROCE177.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$12.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.8B
Shares Outstanding33.63M
Total Debt (MM)$5.05B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$341.79M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.71B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR7.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR11.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$473.33
LTM EV/Revenue3.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.5x
LTM EV/EBIT17.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.9x
LTM P/E20.1x
LTM EV/FCF25.0x
LTM P/FCF18.0x
LTM P/TB7.8x
LTM P/B-3.1x
Dividend Yield1.9%
Payout Ratio39.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $403.62 versus fair value $429.31 (6.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on DoorDash/Uber aggregator full rollout complete mid-2025 adds 50% incremental sales, addressing market concerns on delivery saturation by capturing one-in-three pizza aggregator orders and boosting loyalty conversions. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from aggregator cannibalization shifts mix to lower-margin third-party delivery, compressing franchise royalties and US comps below 3%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Franchise royalties deliver predictable FCF at 13.6% margins with ROIC 18.6% exceeding peers; aggregator incrementality at 50% and loyalty growth to 37.3M users sustain 5% growth; $2.5B buybacks yielded 22.8% net yield.
Bear Case
High leverage at 4.5x net debt/EBITDA and negative -$3,901M equity risks coverage erosion; insider sales totaled $10.5M with no buys; international DPE closures reduced net growth.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
DoorDash/Uber aggregator full rollout complete mid-2025 adds 50% incremental sales, addressing market concerns on delivery saturation by cap...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Supply chain productivity expands margins amid low single-digit food inflation, reinforcing profit power narrative versus pricing.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 2025 results affirmed 3% US comp guide with 172 net stores added; debt refinance at 5.1% blended rate frees $460M buyback capacity...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from aggregator cannibalization shifts mix to lower-margin third-party delivery, compressing franchise royalties and US comps b...
Concern: High
Leverage amplification: earnings dip erodes 4.9x coverage on $5.05B debt with 47% maturing in 3 years.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate: strong capital returns via buybacks/dividends offset low 0.82% insider ownership and no purchases amid $10.5M sales...
Recent Activity
2025-03-15SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
+5.64%Domino's Pizza files definitive proxy statement for 2025 annual meeting
2024-10-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.12%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 Exhibit 99.1 For Immediate Release Contact: Greg Lemenchick Vice President - Investor Relations investorrelations@dominos.com Domino’s Pizza ® Announces Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results Global retail sales...
2024-07-18SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.57%Domino's Pizza reports Q2 2024 financial results with 7.2% global retail sales growth and 4.8% U.S. same store sales growth.
2023-07-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.09%Domino's enters global partnership with Uber Eats for order aggregation
2023-04-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.46%Excerpt: (EX-99) EX-99 Exhibit 99.1 For Immediate Release Contact: Ryan Goers VP - Finance & IR (734) 930-3925 Domino’s Pizza ® Announces First Quarter 2023 Financial Results Global retail sales growth (excluding foreign currency impact)...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$290
Bear
$420
Base
$507
Bull
$404