DUK
Duke Energy Corporation$131.61
Unclear
Target $127.61
Report: Mar 08, 2026Utilities • Regulated Electric • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$131.61-3.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$98.16
(25% below current)
Fair Value
$127.61
(3% below current)
Stop Loss
$83.06
(37% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$134.49
52 Week Low$111.22
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.49M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin46.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin52.6%
LTM EBIT Margin28.7%
LTM Operating Margin26.8%
LTM ROA2.6%
LTM ROE9.6%
LTM ROIC3.8%
LTM ROCE5.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$101.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$192.5B
Shares Outstanding777.00M
Total Debt (MM)$90.87B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$245.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$90.62B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR15.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR25.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$133.40
LTM EV/Revenue6.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit12.9x
LTM EV/EBIT20.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.4x
LTM P/E20.7x
LTM EV/FCF-113.6x
LTM P/FCF-60.1x
LTM P/TB0.6x
LTM P/B2.0x
Dividend Yield3.2%
Payout Ratio67.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $131.61 versus fair value $127.61 (-3.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Asset Monetization Closures Successful closing of the Brookfield Florida minority investment and the Tennessee LDC sale to Spire will provide 8.5 billion USD in combined proceeds, addressing 2026 equity needs and potentially de-leveragin... Bear case centers on Regulatory Lag and Rate Case Pushback The mechanism of risk is the potential for state regulators to deny or delay requested rate hikes as the 103 billion USD CapEx plan increases customer bills, leading to an inability to recover costs... Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The Southeast data center boom provides a multi-gigawatt demand tailwind that could drive EPS growth to the top half of the 5-7% range by 2028. Additionally, the Brookfield and Spire transactions provide non-dilutive capital to fund the 103 billion USD expansion while maintaining investment-grade credit ratings.
Bear Case
Persistent negative free cash flow (1.7 billion USD in FY2025) and high leverage (5.3x Net Debt/EBITDA) leave the company vulnerable to regulatory pushback on rate hikes. Furthermore, an ROIC of 2.1% indicates that the massive capital deployment is not currently creating value for shareholders above the cost of capital.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Asset Monetization Closures Successful closing of the Brookfield Florida minority investment and the Tennessee LDC sale to Spire will provid...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Data Center ESA Execution Signing additional Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) beyond the current 4.5 GW signed pipeline would validate the...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Duke Energy is currently relevant because it is trading near all-time highs while undergoing a critical CEO transition and executing the lar...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Lag and Rate Case Pushback The mechanism of risk is the potential for state regulators to deny or delay requested rate hikes as t...
Concern: Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Debt Service With 90.9 billion USD in total debt and a 175% debt-to-equity ratio, sustained high interest rate...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is characterized by strong board oversight but weak executive alignment. The appointment of Theodore Craver (former Edison Inter...
Recent Activity
No recent events recorded.
Valuation Table
8.0/10Decision Grade