DVA
DaVita Inc.$150.76
Unclear
Target $143.03
Report: Mar 10, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Care Facilities • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$150.76-5.1%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$110.02
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$143.03
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$101.00
(33% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$159.42
52 Week Low$101.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.08M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin32.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin17.1%
LTM EBIT Margin11.9%
LTM Operating Margin14.7%
LTM ROA4.3%
LTM ROE-160.6%
LTM ROIC8.7%
LTM ROCE11.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$22.4B
Shares Outstanding69.60M
Total Debt (MM)$12.87B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$757.75M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$12.12B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR18.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$168.67
LTM EV/Revenue1.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.1x
LTM EV/EBIT13.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.6x
LTM P/E13.7x
LTM EV/FCF17.1x
LTM P/FCF7.8x
LTM P/TB1.1x
LTM P/B-15.8x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $150.76 versus fair value $143.03 (-5.1% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on IKC Profitability Acceleration: Management guided for an incremental $20 million in operating income from IKC in 2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via GLP-1 Disruption: The widespread adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists could delay the progression of CKD to ESRD, potentially shrinking the total addressable market for dialysis by 10% or more over the next decade. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
IKC segment turning profitable ahead of schedule transforms the company into a value-based care platform; aggressive buybacks drive double-digit EPS growth despite flat net income; home dialysis expansion (15% of patients) provides a structural margin tailwind.
Bear Case
GLP-1 therapies potentially shrink the total addressable market for dialysis by delaying ESRD onset; persistent labor and patient-care cost inflation (up 5.9% YoY) continues to compress margins; high leverage (5.2x Net Debt/EBITDA) and negative equity ($651 million) increase financial fragility.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
IKC Profitability Acceleration: Management guided for an incremental $20 million in operating income from IKC in 2026. Achieving this would...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
U.S. Treatment Volume Stabilization: Returning to the 2% volume growth target through clinical improvements (e.g., vaccination, GLP-1 adopti...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
DaVita is relevant for analysis now following its Q4 2025 earnings beat and the subsequent 33% midpoint EPS growth guidance for 2026, which...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion via GLP-1 Disruption: The widespread adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists could delay the progression of CKD to ESRD, potentiall...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory and Legal Pressure on Home Dialysis: The Sanchez v. DaVita class-action lawsuit (Feb 2026) alleges the company pressures patients...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate for a Mature Compounder. The board is highly qualified, with 4 of 9 directors holding CEO or Chair roles in other he...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05Analyst Target
+5.04%Firm: Truist Financial Price Target: $158.00 Price When Posted: $144.41 Implied Upside: +9.4%
2026-02-04Analyst Target
+5.44%Firm: UBS Price Target: $190.00 Price When Posted: $134.73 Implied Upside: +41.0%
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+21.17%DaVita Inc. reported Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results with $3.62B Q4 revenue and $2.09B adjusted operating income
2025-10-30SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-6.17%Vanguard Group reports 5.91% ownership in DaVita Inc.
2025-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.04%DaVita Inc. reported Q2 2025 financial results with $3.38B revenue and $551M adjusted operating income
Valuation Table
9.6/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$36
Bear
$96
Base
$153
Bull
$151