EFX
Equifax Inc.$206.43
Sell
Target $164.26
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Consulting Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$206.43-20.4%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$164.26
(20% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$281.03
52 Week Low$166.02
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.81M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin56.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin30.1%
LTM EBIT Margin18.2%
LTM Operating Margin18.0%
LTM ROA5.6%
LTM ROE13.5%
LTM ROIC17.1%
LTM ROCE11.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$21.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$26.6B
Shares Outstanding123.20M
Total Debt (MM)$5.09B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$180.80M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.91B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR2.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-2.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$238.18
LTM EV/Revenue4.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.7x
LTM EV/EBIT24.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.5x
LTM P/E32.8x
LTM EV/FCF23.4x
LTM P/FCF19.1x
LTM P/TB5.9x
LTM P/B4.7x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio35.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $206.43 versus fair value $164.26 (-20.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of structural margin compression in upcoming quarterly reports. Bear case centers on Permanent Moat Erosion via Regulatory Intervention. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Management successfully leverages the completed cloud migration to drive $75 million in annual AI-related cost savings; the government vertical accelerates growth via OB3 legislation and state-level SNAP verification contracts.
Bear Case
Moat erosion continues as gross margins fail to converge with peers; regulatory penalties and antitrust litigation permanently impair the Workforce Solutions pricing power; high leverage (2.7x Net Debt/EBITDA) limits future M&A and buyback capacity.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of structural margin compression in upcoming quarterly reports. As the cloud migration 'honeymoon' ends, the market will focus o...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Escalation of antitrust litigation regarding the 'Work Number' database. A negative ruling or injunction against further acquisitions would...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Equifax is relevant for analysis now because it has just issued 2026 guidance that assumes a 10% revenue increase, creating a high bar for e...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Permanent Moat Erosion via Regulatory Intervention. The CFPB or antitrust regulators could mandate open access to the Twin database or cap v...
Concern: Medium
De-rating due to High Leverage. With 2.7x Net Debt/EBITDA and a negative tangible book value, any sustained downturn in the mortgage market...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is one of 'Competent Operators, Poor Capital Allocators.' The board is structurally sound and independent, but it ha...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.51%Equifax reports Q4 2025 revenue of $1.551 billion, up 9%, with strong mortgage growth despite market headwinds.
2025-08-13SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+5.11%Beneficial ownership update (SC 13G/A).
2025-07-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.18%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 1550 Peachtree Street, N. W. Atlanta, Georgia 30309 NEWS RELEASE Contact: Trevor Burns Kate Walker Investor Relations Media Relations trevor.burns@equifax.com mediainquiries@equifax.com Equifax...
2025-04-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+13.84%Equifax reported Q1 2025 revenue of $1.442 billion, up 4% YoY, and authorized a $3 billion share repurchase program with a 28% dividend increase.
2025-02-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.42%Equifax reports Q4 2024 revenue of $1.419 billion, up 7%, with strong mortgage growth despite market headwinds.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$105
Bear
$158
Base
$198
Bull
$206