EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.$92.63
Sell
Target $62.33
Report: Mar 10, 2026Consumer Defensive • Household & Personal Products • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$92.63-32.7%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$62.33
(33% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$121.64
52 Week Low$48.37
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.57M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin74.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin9.5%
LTM EBIT Margin3.9%
LTM Operating Margin3.3%
LTM ROA-0.9%
LTM ROE-4.4%
LTM ROIC3.8%
LTM ROCE4.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$26.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$32.3B
Shares Outstanding362.10M
Total Debt (MM)$9.39B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.08B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$6.31B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-3.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-3.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-20.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$111.00
LTM EV/Revenue2.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.0x
LTM EV/EBIT55.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA23.2x
LTM P/E-145.8x
LTM EV/FCF28.1x
LTM P/FCF22.6x
LTM P/TB1.9x
LTM P/B6.4x
Dividend Yield2.0%
Payout Ratio-280.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $92.63 versus fair value $62.33 (-32.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on FY2026 Q3 Earnings Results: This will be the first full quarter under the new CEO's expanded 'Beauty Reimagined' strategy. Bear case centers on Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk: The company is in a race against time. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The PRGP successfully delivers $1 billion in annual savings, restoring operating margins to the 12-14% range. Digital expansion via Amazon and TikTok Shop drives double-digit growth in North America, offsetting China weakness.
Bear Case
Structural decay in China travel retail is permanent, and the $9.4 billion debt load leads to a covenant breach as interest coverage remains negative at -1.9x. Incremental consumer-facing spend fails to generate positive ROIC, which currently sits at -1.2%.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
FY2026 Q3 Earnings Results: This will be the first full quarter under the new CEO's expanded 'Beauty Reimagined' strategy. A failure to show...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Debt Refinancing or Covenant Waiver: With $2.27 billion in debt maturing in 2027 and interest coverage at -1.9x, the company may need to ren...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Estée Lauder is at a critical juncture following a 60% three-year price decline and a recent leadership overhaul. The market is currently te...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk: The company is in a race against time. If the PRGP fails to generate $800 million in annual savings...
Concern: High
Structural Market Share Loss in China: The shift toward local 'C-beauty' brands and the crackdown on 'daigou' resellers may permanently impa...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo: Management continues the PRGP, but high leverage and slow growth lead to a...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05SEC Filing (SC 13G)
-19.19%FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson report 7.0% beneficial ownership of Estee Lauder.
2025-12-02SEC Filing (8-K/A)
+5.21%Estee Lauder expands restructuring program to $1.2-1.6 billion charges.
2025-08-14SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-6.05%Joel S. Ehrenkranz amends Schedule 13G to report zero beneficial ownership of Estee Lauder shares.
2025-05-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.29%Estee Lauder amends and restates Bylaws effective May 22, 2025.
2025-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-16.07%Estée Lauder launches Beauty Reimagined strategic vision and reports Q2 FY25 results
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$9
Bear
$70
Base
$95
Bull
$93