ELV
Elevance Health Inc.$346.80
Unclear
Target $347.95
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Healthcare Plans • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$346.80+0.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$267.65
(23% below current)
Fair Value
$347.95
(0% above current)
Stop Loss
$338.54
(2% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$458.75
52 Week Low$273.71
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.89M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin14.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin4.9%
LTM EBIT Margin4.1%
LTM Operating Margin4.1%
LTM ROA4.7%
LTM ROE13.0%
LTM ROIC13.1%
LTM ROCE10.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$64.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$87.2B
Shares Outstanding220.70M
Total Debt (MM)$32.05B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$9.49B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$22.55B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth12.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-3.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-0.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$382.64
LTM EV/Revenue0.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.9x
LTM EV/EBIT10.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.0x
LTM P/E11.4x
LTM EV/FCF27.5x
LTM P/FCF20.4x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B1.5x
Dividend Yield2.3%
Payout Ratio27.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $346.8 versus fair value $347.95 (0.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Medicaid Margin Stabilization: Management expects 2026 to be the trough year for Medicaid margins. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Medicaid Redeterminations: Permanent loss of risk-based membership and shifting acuity could permanently impair the company's pricing power and return on capital. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
1. Carelon services platform is expanding at 30% annually, providing high-margin diversification. 2. Management is executing a $4.1 billion share repurchase program, delivering a 17.6% net buyback yield. 3. The Blue Cross Blue Shield license provides a durable, legally protected moat that supports pricing power.
Bear Case
1. Medicaid cost inflation and redeterminations are compressing margins, with operating margins falling to 4.1% TTM. 2. Regulatory scrutiny on Medicare Advantage star ratings could result in a $375 million revenue headwind. 3. Incremental ROIC has turned negative at -5.2%, suggesting recent M&A has been inefficient.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Medicaid Margin Stabilization: Management expects 2026 to be the trough year for Medicaid margins. Evidence of stabilization in the benefit-...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Carelon External Growth: Scaling the Carelon platform to serve non-Elevance members would shift the company's multiple toward higher-growth...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Elevance is currently at a critical juncture as it recalibrates its 2026 outlook following a period of significant margin erosion, making it...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion via Medicaid Redeterminations: Permanent loss of risk-based membership and shifting acuity could permanently impair the company...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory Headwinds: Changes in Medicare Advantage star rating methodologies or reimbursement rates could lead to significant revenue loss.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate for a mature compounder. The governance structure is shareholder-friendly with an independent chair and robust proxy...
Recent Activity
2026-01-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.86%Elevance Health reported Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results, setting 2026 outlook
2025-12-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.62%Elevance Health appoints Amy Schulman as new independent director
2025-07-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.22%Elevance Health reports Q2 2025 results with $49.4B revenue and $8.84 adjusted EPS
2024-10-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.59%Elevance Health reports Q3 2024 results and lowers 2024 guidance
2024-07-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.82%Elevance Health reports Q2 2024 results with $43.2B revenue and $2.8B operating gain
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$339
Bear
$464
Base
$539
Bull
$347