EME
EMCOR Group, Inc.$741.00
Unclear
Target $640.10
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Engineering & Construction • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$741.00-13.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$492.38
(34% below current)
Fair Value
$640.10
(14% below current)
Stop Loss
$504.42
(32% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$835.00
52 Week Low$320.89
Avg. 3 Month Volume380K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin19.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin11.3%
LTM EBIT Margin10.2%
LTM Operating Margin10.1%
LTM ROA14.8%
LTM ROE39.1%
LTM ROIC117.3%
LTM ROCE43.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$32.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$32.2B
Shares Outstanding44.53M
Total Debt (MM)$468.21M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.11B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-643.76M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth16.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR15.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR41.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR51.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$818.00
LTM EV/Revenue1.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.8x
LTM EV/EBIT18.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.8x
LTM P/E25.8x
LTM EV/FCF27.0x
LTM P/FCF27.5x
LTM P/TB4.9x
LTM P/B8.9x
Dividend Yield0.2%
Payout Ratio4.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $741.0 versus fair value $640.1 (-13.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Data-center RPO conversion and continued growth in network & communications. Bear case centers on Cycle and balance sheet risk: A 'lower-for-longer' construction downturn or a pause in data-center spending. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Data-center RPOs grew 60% YoY, providing high visibility into a multi-year 'super-cycle' driven by AI infrastructure demand. The company maintains an exceptional ROIC of 117.3% and a net cash position of $643.8 million, enabling continued strategic M&A and shareholder returns.
Bear Case
Gross margins remained flat at 19.3% despite record revenue growth, indicating that labor and commodity cost inflation are neutralizing operating leverage. Insiders have sold $6.19 million in stock over the past year, signaling that management may view the current price as exceeding intrinsic value.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Data-center RPO conversion and continued growth in network & communications. This addresses market concerns regarding the sustainability of...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Successful integration and margin accretion from the Miller Electric and Danforth acquisitions. This would prove that management can scale t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
EMCOR is relevant for analysis at this moment because it is trading at record valuation multiples while insiders are actively reducing their...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Cycle and balance sheet risk: A 'lower-for-longer' construction downturn or a pause in data-center spending. This would lead to a rapid cont...
Concern: High
Labor and commodity cost inflation. Rising input costs could further compress gross margins if EMCOR cannot pass these costs through to cust...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is adequate. While management has proven to be excellent operators and capital allocators, the lack of disclosed thr...
Recent Activity
2026-02-26SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.94%EMCOR Group reports record Q4 and full-year 2025 results with 16.6% revenue growth
2025-10-30SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-16.60%Vanguard Group increases stake in EMCOR Group to 11.91%
2025-02-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.74%EMCOR Group reports record Q4 and full-year 2024 results with 15.8% revenue growth
2025-01-14Press Release
+5.37%Emcor Group, Inc. Announces Agreement To Acquire Miller Electric Company
2024-07-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.03%EMCOR reports Q2 2024 results with record revenues and earnings
Valuation Table
5.0/10Directional
Scenario Range
$504
Bear
$875
Bull
$741