EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.$131.41
Sell
Target $89.72
Report: Mar 08, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$131.41-31.7%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$89.72
(32% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$151.87
52 Week Low$101.59
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.31M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin61.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin48.9%
LTM EBIT Margin29.1%
LTM Operating Margin28.2%
LTM ROA10.1%
LTM ROE16.8%
LTM ROIC14.3%
LTM ROCE15.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$77.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$82.6B
Shares Outstanding537.00M
Total Debt (MM)$8.41B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.40B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.01B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-4.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-4.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-6.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-11.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$132.85
LTM EV/Revenue3.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.9x
LTM EV/EBIT12.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA7.5x
LTM P/E15.6x
LTM EV/FCF23.8x
LTM P/FCF22.3x
LTM P/TB1.5x
LTM P/B2.6x
Dividend Yield2.8%
Payout Ratio43.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $131.41 versus fair value $89.72 (-31.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Earnings Misses and Guidance Revisions EOG's annual EPS hit rate is only 20%, and continued misses will force a re-rating of the stock's premium multiple. Bear case centers on Commodity Price Volatility A sustained decline in WTI below 65.00 dollars would severely impair free cash flow and the ability to maintain the current 90-100% return policy. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Management's ability to maintain a 45.00 dollar WTI breakeven provides a significant safety margin in low-price environments; the integration of the Utica asset is expected to deliver 150 million dollars in annual synergies.
Bear Case
Operating margins have compressed from 34.1% to 28.2% in a single year; incremental ROIC is negative 21.7%, suggesting that new capital projects are destroying shareholder value.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Earnings Misses and Guidance Revisions EOG's annual EPS hit rate is only 20%, and continued misses will force a re-rating of the stock's pre...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Utica Integration and Volume Ramp-up Failure to achieve the 150 million dollar synergy target or the 1 Bcf/day exit rate at Dorado will inva...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
EOG is relevant for analysis now because it is trading near its 52-week high of 134.00 while its fundamental earnings power is in a clear cy...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Commodity Price Volatility A sustained decline in WTI below 65.00 dollars would severely impair free cash flow and the ability to maintain t...
Concern: Medium
Asset Quality and Impairment Further write-downs of legacy assets, similar to the 843 million dollar impairment in FY2025, would erode tangi...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently in a transition phase. The governance outcome tree suggests that if the current status quo continues, the stock wil...
Recent Activity
2025-04-10Market Movement
-8.28%Market/Sector Move -8.28%
2025-03-01Market Movement
-5.04%Market/Sector Move -5.04%
2024-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.06%EOG Resources released third quarter 2024 supplemental financial and operating data.
2023-02-10Market Movement
+5.49%Market/Sector Move +5.49%
2022-09-28Market Movement
+5.96%Market/Sector Move +5.96%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade