EQT
EQT Corporation$62.06
Unclear
Target $57.18
Report: Mar 13, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$62.06-7.9%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$43.98
(29% below current)
Fair Value
$57.18
(8% below current)
Stop Loss
$43.57
(30% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$68.24
52 Week Low$43.57
Avg. 3 Month Volume10.14M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin75.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin66.3%
LTM EBIT Margin36.2%
LTM Operating Margin37.6%
LTM ROA5.0%
LTM ROE9.2%
LTM ROIC7.1%
LTM ROCE8.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$39.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$47.6B
Shares Outstanding624.55M
Total Debt (MM)$7.94B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$110.80M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.83B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth63.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR10.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-11.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$41.11
LTM EV/Revenue5.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.3x
LTM EV/EBIT15.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.3x
LTM P/E19.5x
LTM EV/FCF16.8x
LTM P/FCF14.0x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B1.7x
Dividend Yield0.8%
Payout Ratio14.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $62.06 versus fair value $57.18 (-7.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Clarington Connector commissioning at 400 MMcf/d capacity in mid-2026 addresses Ohio Utica decline and data center demand, unlocking $200M+ annual EBITDA by tightening M2 basis from $0.70 discount; validates vertical integration moat as... Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer gas prices below $2.20/MMBtu breakeven extend trough, compressing revenue 10pp below base to $8,456M Y1 and margins to 25% via basis widening beyond $0.70/MMBtu. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Integrated platform captures $200M marketing uplift and 13% well-cost cuts to $635/foot, driving $3.5B 2026 free cash flow; data centers add 3-10 Bcf/d demand tightening M2 basis to $0.70 discount; ROIC 7.1% with incremental 27.9%.
Bear Case
Negative basis persists at $0.70/MMBtu amid infrastructure constraints; insider sales $11M past 12 months at $57.69 average; net institutional outflow 788k shares Q4 2025 signals caution; debt $7,937M with 6.8% maturing 2026.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Clarington Connector commissioning at 400 MMcf/d capacity in mid-2026 addresses Ohio Utica decline and data center demand, unlocking $200M+...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Net debt falls below $6B by Q1 2026 exit, enabling accelerated buybacks or dividend hikes post-$3.5B free cash flow; signals deleveraging co...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
EQT trades near 52-week high $63.06 after 104.6% 3-year return outperforming XLE 36.3%, but low analyst conviction and insider sales $11M wa...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer gas prices below $2.20/MMBtu breakeven extend trough, compressing revenue 10pp below base to $8,456M Y1 and margins to 25%...
Concern: Medium
Balance sheet stress if covenants breach on $7,937M debt with 6.8% maturing 2026, triggering cross-default and dilution.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong with proven CEO track record of $6.7B Rice exit and $9.5B deleveraging; board majority independent including former Eq...
Recent Activity
2025-04-18SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.47%EQT shareholders approve 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan and officer exculpation amendment
2025-04-04Market Movement
-11.48%Market/Sector Move -11.48%
2024-12-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.88%EQM Midstream Partners upsizes tender offer and consent solicitation for senior notes
2024-11-09SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+6.70%Wellington Management reports 12.48% passive stake in EQT common stock
2023-04-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.95%EQT reports Q1 2023 results with strong cash flow and announces pending acquisition
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$25
Bear
$6572
Base
$76
Bull
$62