EXC
Exelon Corporation$49.09
Sell
Target $33.42
Report: Mar 13, 2026Utilities • Regulated Electric • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$49.09-31.9%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$33.42
(32% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$50.65
52 Week Low$41.71
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.70M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin36.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin37.4%
LTM EBIT Margin22.3%
LTM Operating Margin21.2%
LTM ROA2.5%
LTM ROE9.9%
LTM ROIC3.7%
LTM ROCE5.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$50.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$99.1B
Shares Outstanding1.01B
Total Debt (MM)$50.08B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.15B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$48.93B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR6.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR7.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$50.55
LTM EV/Revenue4.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.3x
LTM EV/EBIT18.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.9x
LTM P/E18.1x
LTM EV/FCF-43.5x
LTM P/FCF-22.0x
LTM P/TB0.5x
LTM P/B1.7x
Dividend Yield3.3%
Payout Ratio58.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $49.09 versus fair value $33.42 (-31.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on Regulatory Rate Case Rulings in Illinois and Maryland Adverse rulings that limit rate-base recovery or grid modernization spend would directly invalidate management's 5-7% earnings growth target. Bear case centers on Regulatory Lag and Hostile Oversight The mechanism of risk is the inability to recover capital expenditures in a timely manner, leading to margin compression and a failure to meet EPS guidance. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 'AI Data Center Boom' drives unprecedented demand for transmission, with Transmission Security Agreements (TSAs) de-risking $1 billion in high-density load projects. Management's 8% rate-base growth target and top-quartile reliability rankings support a 5-7% EPS CAGR through 2029.
Bear Case
The $41.3 billion capital plan is value-destructive, as the 1.9% ROIC is significantly below the cost of capital. Massive leverage (Net Debt $48.9 billion) and persistent negative free cash flow (-$2.3 billion) leave the company vulnerable to interest rate volatility and regulatory lag in Illinois and Maryland.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Regulatory Rate Case Rulings in Illinois and Maryland Adverse rulings that limit rate-base recovery or grid modernization spend would direct...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Financing Strain and Credit Rating Pressure If net debt continues to rise (currently $48.9 billion) without a corresponding increase in cash...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Exelon is relevant for analysis now because the stock is trading near its 52-week high ($49.88) on the back of the data-center narrative, cr...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Lag and Hostile Oversight The mechanism of risk is the inability to recover capital expenditures in a timely manner, leading to m...
Concern: Medium
Interest Rate Volatility and Debt Servicing As an Asset-Based Operator with $50.1 billion in debt, Exelon is highly sensitive to interest ra...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Capable but Constrained.' The board features deep utility expertise, including Independent Chair Paul Bowers (fo...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.97%Exelon reported Q4 2025 GAAP net income of $0.58 per share and Adjusted operating earnings of $0.59 per share, with full-year 2025 results of $2.73 and $2.77 per share respectively, and initiated 2026 guidance of $2.81-$2.91 per share.
Valuation Table
7.3/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$14
Base
$31
Bull
$49