EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc.$221.73
Hold
Target $266.98
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Travel Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$221.73+20.4%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$205.37
(7% below current)
Fair Value
$266.98
(20% above current)
Stop Loss
$87.94
(60% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$303.80
52 Week Low$130.01
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.64M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin90.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin18.8%
LTM EBIT Margin12.8%
LTM Operating Margin12.7%
LTM ROA5.0%
LTM ROE114.3%
LTM ROIC-159.8%
LTM ROCE23.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$28.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$27.7B
Shares Outstanding122.71M
Total Debt (MM)$6.42B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$6.98B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-561.00M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR19.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR67.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$271.56
LTM EV/Revenue1.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.1x
LTM EV/EBIT14.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA10.0x
LTM P/E21.9x
LTM EV/FCF8.9x
LTM P/FCF9.1x
LTM P/TB1.7x
LTM P/B22.0x
Dividend Yield0.7%
Payout Ratio15.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $221.73 versus fair value $266.98 (20.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on B2B Segment Outperformance Continued double-digit growth in the B2B segment (currently 24%) will shift the revenue mix toward higher-margin, more durable technology licensing fees, forcing a market re-rating of the entire platform. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion from Search Disruption Google Travel and other metasearch engines could further disintermediate Expedia, forcing higher marketing spend and lower B2C margins. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Strategic (12-24 Months) horizon.
Bull Case
The B2B segment is a hidden powerhouse, growing 24% and providing high-margin recurring revenue that offsets B2C volatility. AI integration is delivering tangible margin expansion, with operating margins rising 310 basis points to 12.7% in FY 2025. Aggressive buybacks at low multiples (8.6x EV/FCF) are significantly accretive to EPS.
Bear Case
The core B2C franchise is losing relevance, with bookings growing only 1% amid intense competition from Google and Booking.com. Incremental ROIC is currently negative at -3.5%, suggesting that massive R&D and CapEx spending has yet to generate returns above the 11.3% cost of capital. Tangible book value is deeply negative at -$48.6 per share, offering no downside protection.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
B2B Segment Outperformance Continued double-digit growth in the B2B segment (currently 24%) will shift the revenue mix toward higher-margin,...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
AI-Driven Margin Inflection As the company moves from the 'development' to 'deployment' phase of its AI strategy, the reduction in customer...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Expedia is at a critical juncture following its CEO transition and the completion of its massive technology unification. With the stock trad...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion from Search Disruption Google Travel and other metasearch engines could further disintermediate Expedia, forcing higher marketi...
Concern: Medium
Negative Reinvestment Returns Continued high R&D and CapEx spending (12% of revenue) may fail to generate returns above WACC, leading to fur...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Adequate but Unaligned.' While the capital allocation strategy is highly shareholder-friendly, the lack of insid...
Recent Activity
2026-02-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.41%Expedia Group reports Q4 2025 results with double-digit gross bookings and revenue growth year-over-year.
2025-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.55%Expedia Group reports Q3 2025 results with 12% bookings growth and 9% revenue growth, exceeding guidance.
2025-05-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.30%Expedia Group reports Q1 2025 results with 4% bookings growth and 3% revenue growth year-over-year.
2025-02-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.27%Expedia Group reports Q4 2024 results with double-digit room nights, gross bookings, and revenue growth.
2024-08-09SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.21%Expedia Group reports Q2 2024 results with 6% revenue growth and 10% room night growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$200
Bear
$335
Bull
$222