EXR
Extra Space Storage Inc.$148.04
Sell
Target $94.75
Report: Mar 13, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Industrial • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$148.04-36.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$94.75
(36% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$155.19
52 Week Low$121.03
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.36M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin70.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin69.0%
LTM EBIT Margin47.5%
LTM Operating Margin41.8%
LTM ROA3.3%
LTM ROE7.1%
LTM ROIC3.8%
LTM ROCE5.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$27.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$41.5B
Shares Outstanding211.65M
Total Debt (MM)$13.99B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$138.92M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$13.85B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR20.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR18.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-10.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$150.00
LTM EV/Revenue12.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit17.4x
LTM EV/EBIT25.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA17.8x
LTM P/E28.4x
LTM EV/FCF36.8x
LTM P/FCF24.5x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B2.1x
Dividend Yield4.9%
Payout Ratio140.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $148.04 versus fair value $94.75 (-36.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on NYC Predatory Pricing Lawsuit Resolution The NYC Department of Consumer and Worker Protection lawsuit targets 60 locations and alleges bait-and-switch tactics. Bear case centers on Regulatory Pricing Restrictions The mechanism of risk is the potential for state-level legislation (similar to the LA pricing restrictions mentioned in transcripts) that limits the frequency and magnitude of rent increases for existing c... Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Scale advantages from the 1,856-store managed platform generate high-margin fee income; AI-driven pricing engine optimizes occupancy, which remains high at 94.6%.
Bear Case
ROIC of 2.3% is significantly below the 9.5% WACC, indicating value destruction; same-store revenue growth is flat while property taxes and insurance costs are rising at double-digit rates.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
NYC Predatory Pricing Lawsuit Resolution The NYC Department of Consumer and Worker Protection lawsuit targets 60 locations and alleges bait-...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Gross Margin Compression to Sub-70% Levels Continued property tax normalization and a 20% increase in insurance premiums are expected to dri...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Extra Space Storage is relevant for analysis now because the stock is trading near its 52-week high despite a clear divergence between its a...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Regulatory Pricing Restrictions The mechanism of risk is the potential for state-level legislation (similar to the LA pricing restrictions m...
Concern: Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Refinancing Risk With $14B in debt and a Debt/Equity ratio of 104.2%, the company is highly sensitive to the c...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is technically sound with high independence and separate roles, but the stewardship is undermined by the lack of 's...
Recent Activity
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.03%Extra Space Storage Inc. reported 2025 second quarter results with 34.1% increase in net income per share and maintained annual FFO guidance.
2023-11-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.57%Extra Space Storage Inc. reported 2023 third quarter results following Life Storage merger, showing 41.8% decrease in net income per share due to $54.2M transition costs.
2023-08-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.86%Extra Space Storage Inc. reported 2023 second quarter results with 13.3% decrease in net income per share, completed $450M bond offering and $150M preferred stock investment.
2023-03-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.75%Extra Space Storage priced $500 million of 5.700% senior notes due 2028 at 99.823% of principal.
2022-11-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.92%Extra Space Storage reported Q3 2022 results with 19.5% Core FFO growth and 16.4% same-store NOI growth.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$25
Bear
$50
Base
$72
Bull
$148