FAST
Fastenal Company$46.23
Sell
Target $39.87
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Industrial - Distribution • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$46.23-13.8%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$39.87
(14% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$50.63
52 Week Low$35.31
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.70M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin45.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin22.4%
LTM EBIT Margin20.3%
LTM Operating Margin20.2%
LTM ROA25.1%
LTM ROE32.8%
LTM ROIC37.2%
LTM ROCE39.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$53.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$53.4B
Shares Outstanding1.15B
Total Debt (MM)$441.90M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$276.80M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$165.10M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR4.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR5.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$47.50
LTM EV/Revenue6.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit14.5x
LTM EV/EBIT32.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA29.0x
LTM P/E42.3x
LTM EV/FCF50.2x
LTM P/FCF50.0x
LTM P/TB10.5x
LTM P/B13.5x
Dividend Yield1.9%
Payout Ratio81.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $46.23 versus fair value $39.87 (-13.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on FMI signings exceed 30,000 weighted devices in 2026 per Q1 guidance, validating moat via 14% above 5-year average pace and addressing market concerns on growth sustainability amid 45.0% gross margin. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from Amazon Business e-commerce disrupting high-touch FMI/Onsite model, impairing pricing power and ROIC from 37.2%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
FMI lock-in at 46.1% sales with 136,600 devices (+7.6% YoY) drives 8.7% revenue growth exceeding peer 6.6% median; ROIC 37.2% > peer 28.2%; fortress balance sheet with net debt $165M (0.1x EBITDA).
Bear Case
Gross margin down 60bps to 45.0% over five years from mix/freight; CapEx 2.8% revenue (128.6% depreciation) signals peak cycle; insider net sales $29.4M past 12 months; TTM P/FCF 49.9x > 43.1x 5Y avg.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
FMI signings exceed 30,000 weighted devices in 2026 per Q1 guidance, validating moat via 14% above 5-year average pace and addressing market...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Fastenal's TTM P/FCF multiple of 49.9x exceeds its five-year average of 43.1x by 15.8%, driven by peak-cycle CapEx at 2.8% of $8,200M TTM re...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 2025 guidance for double-digit 2026 sales and CapEx ~3.5% revenue amid industrial softness demands scrutiny of FMI traction now.
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion from Amazon Business e-commerce disrupting high-touch FMI/Onsite model, impairing pricing power and ROIC from 37.2%.
Concern: Medium
Amazon disruption slows growth to 4%, margins -120bps to 19.0% yielding $31.05 floor.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship strong with 4/5 capital allocation score, but adequate incentives (CEO 1.75% pre-tax growth bonus) and low ownership (<1%) amid...
Recent Activity
2025-04-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.39%Fastenal appoints Sheryl A. Lisowski as interim CFO effective April 17, 2025
2024-10-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.77%Fastenal reported Q3 2024 earnings with 3.5% sales growth and flat EPS
2024-04-11SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.50%Fastenal reported Q1 2024 earnings with 1.9% sales growth and flat EPS
2024-01-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.19%Fastenal reported full-year 2023 earnings with 5.2% sales growth and 6.3% EPS increase
2023-10-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.50%Fastenal reported Q3 2023 earnings with 2.4% sales growth and 3.8% EPS increase
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$31
Bear
$42
Base
$49
Bull
$46