FICO
Fair Isaac Corporation$1281.64
Sell
Target $1027.75
Report: Feb 25, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$1281.64-19.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$1027.75
(20% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$2,217.60
52 Week Low$969.32
Avg. 3 Month Volume337K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin82.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin49.2%
LTM EBIT Margin48.0%
LTM Operating Margin47.5%
LTM ROA35.5%
LTM ROE-43.3%
LTM ROIC31.5%
LTM ROCE81.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$25.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$28.4B
Shares Outstanding23.72M
Total Debt (MM)$3.21B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$162.03M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.05B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth16.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR13.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR19.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR21.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$2,205.40
LTM EV/Revenue13.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit16.6x
LTM EV/EBIT28.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA28.0x
LTM P/E38.5x
LTM EV/FCF39.5x
LTM P/FCF35.3x
LTM P/TB23.7x
LTM P/B-14.0x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $1281.64 versus fair value $1027.75 (-19.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on DOJ Antitrust Investigation Outcome A resolution or escalation of the DOJ probe into FICO's pricing practices will serve as a definitive sentiment-shifting event. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Regulatory Price Caps The DOJ or CFPB could determine that FICO's 100% price increases in mortgage scores are anti-competitive, leading to mandated price ceilings that would permanently impair the company's return on cap... Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The FICO Platform creates a powerful flywheel effect, where scoring customers transition into high-margin SaaS decisioning software, evidenced by a 122% platform net retention rate. Furthermore, the Mortgage Direct License Program could capture up to 90% of mortgage volume, providing a new layer of pricing control.
Bear Case
Regulatory intervention from the DOJ or CFPB could cap pricing or force structural changes to the scoring monopoly. Additionally, the adoption of VantageScore by the FHFA represents a permanent loss of market share in the core mortgage origination business.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
DOJ Antitrust Investigation Outcome A resolution or escalation of the DOJ probe into FICO's pricing practices will serve as a definitive sen...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
FHFA Multi-Score Implementation The transition from a FICO-only mortgage underwriting requirement to a bi-merge system including VantageScor...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
FICO is relevant for analysis now because the stock has recently broken below its 200-day moving average of $1,636.25, and the RSI of 27.7 i...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion via Regulatory Price Caps The DOJ or CFPB could determine that FICO's 100% price increases in mortgage scores are anti-competit...
Concern: Medium
Financial Fragility from Extreme Leverage The company's Debt/Assets ratio of 1.98 and negative equity position leave it with no margin for e...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Adequate but Divergent.' While the board structure is strong and independent, the Governance Outcome Tree sugges...
Recent Activity
2026-02-03Press Release
-8.47%Mentalist Oz Pearlman Will Demonstrate Power Of Reading Customer Cues At Fico World 2026
2025-10-02Analyst Target
+17.98%Firm: Barclays Price Target: $2,400.00 Price When Posted: $1,512.71 Implied Upside: +58.7%
2025-08-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.13%Fair Isaac Corporation announces retirement of James Wehmann, President, Scores, effective September 5, 2025
2025-07-31SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.96%FICO reports Q3 FY2025 earnings of $7.40 per share with revenue of $536 million
2025-07-08Press Release
-8.91%Fico Platform Powers R$1B Digital Transformation In Brazil'S Rural Credit System
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$759
Bear
$1062
Base
$1293
Bull
$1282