FISV
Fiserv, Inc.$59.36
Buy
Target $127.35
Report: Feb 25, 2026Technology • Information Technology Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$59.36+114.5%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$59.36
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$127.35
(115% above current)
Stop Loss
$55.00
(7% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$227.00
52 Week Low$52.91
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.31M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin59.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin42.2%
LTM EBIT Margin27.3%
LTM Operating Margin27.5%
LTM ROA4.3%
LTM ROE13.6%
LTM ROIC15.4%
LTM ROCE10.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$29.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$58.0B
Shares Outstanding536.00M
Total Debt (MM)$29.00B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$798.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$28.20B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR6.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR17.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$104.18
LTM EV/Revenue2.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.6x
LTM EV/EBIT10.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.5x
LTM P/E8.6x
LTM EV/FCF13.5x
LTM P/FCF6.9x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B1.2x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $59.36 versus fair value $127.35 (114.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Activist-Driven Strategic Review Jana Partners' pressure is expected to force a formal review of the business portfolio, potentially leading to the divestiture of slower-growing legacy assets. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Merchant Acquiring Intense competition from Adyen and Stripe could force Fiserv to cut prices, permanently impairing its 60.5% gross margin. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Clover's transition to a full SMB operating system is driving 29% revenue growth and higher yields; Project Elevate is on track to deliver significant margin expansion through AI; and aggressive share repurchases (19.4% reduction in 4.7 years) are creating massive EPS leverage.
Bear Case
Legacy core banking systems face terminal value risk from cloud-native competitors; high leverage (91.8% Debt/Equity) limits flexibility in a rising rate environment; and intense pricing pressure in merchant acquiring could commoditize traditional processing revenue.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Activist-Driven Strategic Review Jana Partners' pressure is expected to force a formal review of the business portfolio, potentially leading...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Project Elevate Margin Realization The realization of AI-driven cost savings is expected to expand operating margins toward the 30% threshol...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Fiserv is relevant for analysis at this moment because it is trading at a multi-year valuation trough just as an activist investor has enter...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion in Merchant Acquiring Intense competition from Adyen and Stripe could force Fiserv to cut prices, permanently impairing its 60....
Concern: Low
Goodwill Impairment With $46.5 billion in intangibles and a negative tangible book value, a significant write-down could trigger a technical...
Concern: Medium
The governance situation is in a state of flux due to the Jana Partners intervention. We outline the following Governance Outcome Tree: 1. S...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30Analyst Target
-7.66%Firm: Bernstein Price Target: $80.00 Price When Posted: $70.60 Implied Upside: +13.3%
2025-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-44.04%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 News Release For more information contact: Media Relations: Sophia Marshall Senior Vice President, Communications Fiserv, Inc. 678-641-0116 sophia.marshall@fiserv.com Investor...
2025-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.85%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 News Release For more information contact: Media Relations: Sophia Marshall Senior Vice President, Communications Fiserv, Inc. 470-351-9908 sophia.marshall@fiserv.com Investor...
2025-05-15Analyst Target
-16.19%Firm: Mizuho Securities Analyst: Dan Dolev Price Target: $200.00 Price When Posted: $159.13 Implied Upside: +25.7%
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-18.53%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 News Release For more information contact: Media Relations: Sophia Marshall Senior Vice President, Communications Fiserv, Inc. 470-351-9908 sophia.marshall@fiserv.com Investor...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$81
Bear
$152
Base
$207
Bull
$59