FOXA
Fox Corporation$58.42
Hold
Target $68.00
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Entertainment • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$58.42+16.4%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$52.31
(10% below current)
Fair Value
$68.00
(16% above current)
Stop Loss
$28.29
(52% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$76.39
52 Week Low$46.42
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.10M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin35.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin19.0%
LTM EBIT Margin16.7%
LTM Operating Margin18.1%
LTM ROA8.3%
LTM ROE16.2%
LTM ROIC17.4%
LTM ROCE13.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$24.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$29.4B
Shares Outstanding433.00M
Total Debt (MM)$6.60B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.02B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.59B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth9.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR4.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR15.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$75.14
LTM EV/Revenue1.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.0x
LTM EV/EBIT10.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.3x
LTM P/E13.1x
LTM EV/FCF12.7x
LTM P/FCF10.8x
LTM P/TB1.7x
LTM P/B2.3x
Dividend Yield0.9%
Payout Ratio13.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $58.42 versus fair value $68.0 (16.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Tubi Margin Expansion: Tubi is on track to reach long-term margins of 20-25%. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Cord-Cutting: Accelerating subscriber declines in the traditional MVPD bundle could impair affiliate fee revenue faster than buybacks can offset the per-share impact. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Aggressive share retirement has reduced the share count by 26.5% since 2019; Tubi has reached EBITDA profitability ahead of schedule; Fox News maintains absolute dominance in cable news ratings.
Bear Case
Accelerating decline of the linear cable bundle threatens high-margin affiliate fees; sports rights amortization is pressuring gross margins; ongoing $2.7 billion Smartmatic defamation litigation poses a latent cash risk.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Tubi Margin Expansion: Tubi is on track to reach long-term margins of 20-25%. As it scales, it will shift from a margin drag to a significan...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
2026 Political Ad Cycle: The upcoming election cycle is expected to drive record local and national political advertising revenue, providing...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Fox is relevant at this moment because it has just resolved a multi-year governance crisis and launched its Fox One D2C service, marking the...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion via Cord-Cutting: Accelerating subscriber declines in the traditional MVPD bundle could impair affiliate fee revenue faster tha...
Concern: High
Smartmatic Litigation: A potential multi-billion dollar judgment in the ongoing defamation case could exhaust the company's $2.02 billion ca...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree has shifted toward a 'Status Quo' victory following the trust resolution. 1. Status Quo: Lachlan Murdoch execute...
Recent Activity
2025-10-30SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+7.73%Vanguard Group increases Fox Corp holdings to 7.49% of Class B common stock
2025-09-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.15%Fox Corp resolves Murdoch Family Trust litigation with new trust structure
2025-08-13SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+5.33%Dodge & Cox increases Fox Corp holdings to 6.5% of Class A common stock
2025-05-13SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+5.38%State Street Corporation holds 8.8% of Fox Corp Class A common stock
2025-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.18%Fox Corp reports Q2 FY2025 revenue of $5.08B with 20% year-over-year growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$36
Bear
$55
Base
$71
Bull
$58