FRT
Federal Realty Investment Trust$108.67
Sell
Target $83.94
Report: Mar 08, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Retail • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$108.67-22.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$83.94
(23% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$110.89
52 Week Low$80.65
Avg. 3 Month Volume810K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin67.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin75.3%
LTM EBIT Margin46.5%
LTM Operating Margin35.3%
LTM ROA4.6%
LTM ROE12.5%
LTM ROIC4.4%
LTM ROCE6.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$9.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$14.1B
Shares Outstanding85.98M
Total Debt (MM)$5.03B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$107.42M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.92B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA5.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR6.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR5.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-0.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$111.00
LTM EV/Revenue11.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit16.4x
LTM EV/EBIT23.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.6x
LTM P/E22.7x
LTM EV/FCF-34.8x
LTM P/FCF-22.7x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B2.8x
Dividend Yield4.2%
Payout Ratio95.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $108.67 versus fair value $83.94 (-22.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Refinancing Headwind Realization Management has quantified a 170-180 bps headwind as $400M in low-coupon debt is refinanced at 4.25-4.5%. Bear case centers on Interest Rate Volatility Permanently higher interest rates would expand cap rates for retail assets, directly reducing the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the portfolio and increasing the cost of the company's $5.0B debt load. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Dividend King status with 58 years of increases provides a psychological floor for income investors; High-quality coastal assets maintain 96%+ occupancy and 12-15% rent spreads; Successful residential development pipeline yields 6.5-7.0%.
Bear Case
Negative free cash flow of -$404.4M forces reliance on dilutive equity issuance; ROIC of 3.1% is significantly below the 9.5% cost of capital; High leverage of 154.8% debt-to-equity limits financial flexibility.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Refinancing Headwind Realization Management has quantified a 170-180 bps headwind as $400M in low-coupon debt is refinanced at 4.25-4.5%. As...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Negative Free Cash Flow Persistence Continued capex intensity (80.3% of revenue) and negative FCF (-$404.4M) will eventually force a reducti...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Federal Realty is relevant for analysis now because it is trading near its 52-week high of $110.89 despite a clear fundamental pivot toward...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Interest Rate Volatility Permanently higher interest rates would expand cap rates for retail assets, directly reducing the Net Asset Value (...
Concern: Medium
Coastal Asset Obsolescence or Cost Inflation Rising property insurance premiums and climate-related risks in core coastal markets (SF, LA, D...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is Adequate. While management has maintained a legendary dividend streak and built a fortress-like asset base, the r...
Recent Activity
2025-05-10Market Movement
+5.04%Market/Sector Move +5.04%
2025-02-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.07%Federal Realty reports record 2024 results with 452 comparable leases and 3.4% POI growth
2022-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.71%Federal Realty reports Q3 2022 results with 3.7% comparable POI growth and record leasing
2021-12-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.15%Federal Realty Investment Trust announces holding company reorganization to improve tax-deferred property acquisitions
2021-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.98%Federal Realty Investment Trust reported Q2 2021 results with record leasing activity, new acquisitions, and increased dividend.
Valuation Table
8.2/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$6
Bear
$84
Base
$113
Bull
$109