FSLR
First Solar, Inc.$194.28
Buy
Target $283.58
Report: Mar 07, 2026Energy • Solar • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$194.28+46.0%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$194.28
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$283.58
(46% above current)
Stop Loss
$183.00
(6% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$285.99
52 Week Low$116.56
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.37M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin40.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin41.3%
LTM EBIT Margin31.1%
LTM Operating Margin30.6%
LTM ROA11.8%
LTM ROE17.3%
LTM ROIC17.9%
LTM ROCE15.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$21.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$18.9B
Shares Outstanding107.31M
Total Debt (MM)$498.57M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.80B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-2.30B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-1.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth24.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR25.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR95.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$268.32
LTM EV/Revenue3.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.9x
LTM EV/EBIT11.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.8x
LTM P/E13.9x
LTM EV/FCF15.9x
LTM P/FCF17.8x
LTM P/TB1.6x
LTM P/B2.2x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $194.28 versus fair value $283.58 (46.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on U.S. Bear case centers on Policy and Tax Credit Reliance The company's reliance on Section 45X tax credits ($1.6 billion in FY2025) makes it vulnerable to legislative changes that could permanently impair its cash flow and margin profile. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
First Solar's U.S. capacity expansion to 14.9 GW by 2026 will capture massive domestic content premiums and IRA tax credits, while the rollout of CURE technology provides a $0.03/W pricing adder that the market is currently ignoring. The company's $2.3 billion net cash position and 41.1% incremental ROIC provide a massive margin of safety and the ability to self-fund growth through the solar cycle.
Bear Case
The company is overly reliant on Section 45X tax credits, which accounted for roughly 30% of FY2025 net income, making it vulnerable to political shifts. Furthermore, the 6.9 GW of BP debookings and ongoing litigation suggest that the contracted backlog may be less firm than management claims in a volatile pricing environment.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
U.S. Finishing Line Operationalization The ramp of the South Carolina and Louisiana facilities will increase U.S. nameplate capacity to 14.9...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
CURE Technology Rollout The conversion of the Ohio facility to CURE technology in Q1 2026 will allow the company to capture a $0.025 to $0.0...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
First Solar is relevant for analysis now because the stock has de-rated to $194 following the BP debookings, creating a rare entry point for...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Policy and Tax Credit Reliance The company's reliance on Section 45X tax credits ($1.6 billion in FY2025) makes it vulnerable to legislative...
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion from Low-Cost Competition Technological disruption or aggressive pricing from Chinese manufacturers could force further underut...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is adequate but tempered by weak insider alignment. While management has delivered high ROIC, insiders sold $28.2 mi...
Recent Activity
2026-02-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.61%First Solar announced 2025 financial results and 2026 guidance, reporting $5.2 billion in net sales and $14.21 diluted EPS for 2025, with 2026 guidance of $4.9-5.2 billion in net sales and $2.6-2.8 billion in Adjusted EBITDA.
2026-02-06SEC Filing (SC 13G)
-6.67%FMR LLC files 13G reporting 6.1% ownership in First Solar.
2026-01-29Analyst Target
-10.18%Firm: BMO Capital Analyst: Market Perform Price Target: $263.00 Price When Posted: $249.41 Implied Upside: +5.4%
2026-01-07Analyst Target
-10.29%Firm: Deutsche Bank Price Target: $300.00 Price When Posted: $241.54 Implied Upside: +24.2%
2025-10-31SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+14.28%Vanguard Group files 13G/A amendment reporting 12.79% ownership in First Solar.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$183
Bear
$284
Base
$368
Bull
$194