FTV
Fortive Corporation$59.20
Unclear
Target $57.30
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$59.20-3.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$44.08
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$57.30
(3% below current)
Stop Loss
$41.86
(29% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$62.42
52 Week Low$45.49
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.86M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin63.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin29.2%
LTM EBIT Margin18.6%
LTM Operating Margin17.3%
LTM ROA3.9%
LTM ROE6.9%
LTM ROIC23.1%
LTM ROCE6.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$17.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$19.8B
Shares Outstanding316.40M
Total Debt (MM)$3.21B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$375.50M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.83B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-17.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-4.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-5.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-6.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$61.00
LTM EV/Revenue4.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.3x
LTM EV/EBIT25.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.4x
LTM P/E29.4x
LTM EV/FCF20.3x
LTM P/FCF17.4x
LTM P/TB7.6x
LTM P/B2.6x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio19.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $59.2 versus fair value $57.3 (-3.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Launch of AI-enhanced features in ServiceChannel and Fluke platforms. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from tariff escalation and geopolitical friction. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The transition to a 50% recurring revenue mix provides high visibility and switching costs that protect a 17.4% ROIC. Aggressive capital allocation, including a 15.5% net buyback yield over the last 4.7 years, continues to drive per-share value even during periods of modest organic growth.
Bear Case
Organic core revenue growth remains sluggish at 1.7%, and the company faces persistent headwinds from tariffs and geopolitical volatility. Operating margins contracted by 100 basis points to 17.3% in the most recent fiscal year, suggesting that rising compensation and restructuring costs are currently offsetting pricing gains.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Launch of AI-enhanced features in ServiceChannel and Fluke platforms. This addresses market concerns regarding the 'commoditization' of indu...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Margin expansion in the Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) segment. Recovery from localized strategic growth investments in 2025 should dri...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Fortive is relevant at this moment as it has just established its first full-year baseline as a 'New Fortive' post-spin-off, providing the f...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from tariff escalation and geopolitical friction. Increased costs for critical components and demand deferrals in key markets l...
Concern: High
Failure to accelerate organic growth beyond the 2% threshold. If the software transition fails to drive higher volume, the stock may suffer...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by a highly independent board and incentives tightly aligned with relative Total Shareholder Return (60...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.63%Fortive reports fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, initiates FY 2026 guidance
2024-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.19%Fortive Corp reports Q2 2024 results with resilient earnings growth despite delayed recovery
2024-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.76%Fortive Corp reports Q1 2024 results with revenue growth and raised full-year outlook
2024-02-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.19%Fortive reports strong fourth quarter and full year 2023 results, introduces 2024 outlook
2023-10-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.05%Fortive Corp reports Q3 2023 results with strong margins and raised full-year outlook
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$42
Bear
$54
Base
$67
Bull
$59