GE
GE Aerospace$345.74
Sell
Target $215.92
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Aerospace & Defense • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$345.74-37.5%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$215.92
(38% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$348.48
52 Week Low$159.36
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.66M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin36.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin26.5%
LTM EBIT Margin23.9%
LTM Operating Margin18.7%
LTM ROA6.9%
LTM ROE45.9%
LTM ROIC12.9%
LTM ROCE12.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$297.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$305.7B
Shares Outstanding1.05B
Total Debt (MM)$20.49B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$12.39B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$8.10B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth0.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-15.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR27.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$391.50
LTM EV/Revenue6.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit18.1x
LTM EV/EBIT27.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA25.1x
LTM P/E34.2x
LTM EV/FCF41.4x
LTM P/FCF40.3x
LTM P/TB2.5x
LTM P/B15.9x
Dividend Yield0.5%
Payout Ratio17.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $345.74 versus fair value $215.92 (-37.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Normalization of Services Growth: As the post-pandemic recovery in flight hours fully matures, the 'pent-up demand' that drove 2025 outperformance will fade, likely leading to a revenue growth deceleration in 2026. Bear case centers on Valuation De-rating: The primary risk is a multiple contraction from 30.5x EV/EBITDA toward the sector median of 16.8x as growth slows. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The 190 billion USD backlog and 70% recurring service revenue provide unparalleled cash flow visibility in a volatile macro environment. The FLIGHT DECK operating model continues to drive efficiency, with operating margins expanding 450 basis points to 18.7% in 2025.
Bear Case
The stock trades at a 41.7x P/E multiple, a significant premium to peers like RTX (38.5x) despite GE's lower revenue growth (0.1% TTM). Gross margins slipped 40 basis points to 36.8% in 2025, indicating that pricing power is not fully offsetting material cost inflation.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Normalization of Services Growth: As the post-pandemic recovery in flight hours fully matures, the 'pent-up demand' that drove 2025 outperfo...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
LEAP OE Profitability Inflection: Management expects LEAP original equipment (OE) to become profitable in 2026. Failure to reach this milest...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
GE Aerospace is currently trading near its 52-week high of 348.48 USD following a 401.9% return over the last three years, making it highly...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Valuation De-rating: The primary risk is a multiple contraction from 30.5x EV/EBITDA toward the sector median of 16.8x as growth slows.
Concern: Medium
Supply Chain Fragility: Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and labor shortages could delay LEAP engine deliveries and MRO shop visi...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is exceptional, with a board comprised of 80% directors with financial or capital allocation expertise, including T...
Recent Activity
2026-01-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.38%GE Aerospace announces Q4 2025 results with strong performance and initiates 2026 guidance.
2025-04-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.07%GE Aerospace reports Q1 2025 results, maintains full-year guidance
2025-01-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.60%GE Aerospace reports strong Q4 2024 results and provides 2025 guidance.
2024-10-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.05%GE Aerospace reports strong Q3 2024 results with significant earnings growth and raises full-year guidance.
2024-09-13Press Release
+5.06%Ge Aerospace Board Of Directors Authorizes Regular Quarterly Dividend
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade