GILD
Gilead Sciences, Inc.$148.56
Unclear
Target $146.34
Report: Mar 13, 2026Healthcare • Drug Manufacturers - General • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$148.56-1.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$112.57
(24% below current)
Fair Value
$146.34
(1% below current)
Stop Loss
$121.44
(18% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$157.29
52 Week Low$93.37
Avg. 3 Month Volume7.18M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin78.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin46.1%
LTM EBIT Margin36.8%
LTM Operating Margin34.0%
LTM ROA14.8%
LTM ROE41.0%
LTM ROIC29.3%
LTM ROCE23.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$173.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$190.4B
Shares Outstanding1.24B
Total Debt (MM)$24.94B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$7.56B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$17.37B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.4%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR15.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR23.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$158.71
LTM EV/Revenue6.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.2x
LTM EV/EBIT17.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.0x
LTM P/E20.3x
LTM EV/FCF20.1x
LTM P/FCF18.3x
LTM P/TB5.1x
LTM P/B7.6x
Dividend Yield2.3%
Payout Ratio46.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $148.56 versus fair value $146.34 (-1.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Yeztugo (lenacapavir) Launch Trajectory Management has guided to 800 million USD in 2026 revenue for this twice-yearly injectable. Bear case centers on Medicare Part D Redesign Pricing Pressure The redesign of government drug pricing is expected to create a structural headwind that impairs the net pricing of the HIV franchise. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The HIV franchise remains a dominant cash cow with patents secured until 2036, providing a long runway for the oncology pivot. The Yeztugo launch is exceeding expectations with 90% coverage achieved early, and the pipeline contains high-potential assets like anito-cel in multiple myeloma.
Bear Case
Medicare Part D redesign creates a 1.1 billion USD annual headwind for HIV earnings, and the cell therapy segment is facing competitive pressure, leading to a 10% revenue decline. Ongoing litigation regarding TDF-based medications poses a latent legal risk.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Yeztugo (lenacapavir) Launch Trajectory Management has guided to 800 million USD in 2026 revenue for this twice-yearly injectable. Successfu...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Trodelvy First-Line Lung Cancer Data Clinical readouts for Trodelvy in the first-line setting could double the addressable market compared t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Gilead is at a critical juncture following its 2025 earnings turnaround, with the market now focused on the sustainability of HIV growth and...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Medicare Part D Redesign Pricing Pressure The redesign of government drug pricing is expected to create a structural headwind that impairs t...
Concern: High
Moat Erosion in Cell Therapy Increased competition and clinical trial impacts have led to declining volumes in the cell therapy segment, thr...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, supported by an independent board with deep financial and biopharma expertise, including Audit Chair Kelly Kramer (ex...
Recent Activity
2026-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.82%Gilead Sciences reported Q4 2025 revenue of $7.9 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with full-year revenue of $29.4 billion, up 2%.
2025-08-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.28%Gilead Sciences reported Q2 2025 financial results with 2% revenue growth to $7.1 billion and increased full-year guidance.
2025-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.46%Gilead Sciences reported Q4 2024 revenue of $7.6 billion, up 6% year-over-year, with full-year revenue of $28.8 billion, up 6%.
2024-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.77%Gilead Sciences reported Q3 2024 financial results with 7% revenue growth to $7.5 billion and increased full-year guidance.
2022-10-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.92%Gilead Sciences reported Q3 2022 financial results with 5% revenue decline to $7.0 billion.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade