GIS
General Mills, Inc.$38.05
Hold
Target $43.44
Report: Mar 11, 2026Consumer Defensive • Packaged Foods • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$38.05+14.2%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$33.42
(12% below current)
Fair Value
$43.44
(14% above current)
Stop Loss
$38.59
(1% above current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$62.61
52 Week Low$35.64
Avg. 3 Month Volume9.01M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin33.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin21.9%
LTM EBIT Margin18.9%
LTM Operating Margin19.0%
LTM ROA6.8%
LTM ROE23.7%
LTM ROIC22.3%
LTM ROCE14.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$19.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$33.0B
Shares Outstanding533.68M
Total Debt (MM)$13.97B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$785.50M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$13.18B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-6.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-2.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-4.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$47.42
LTM EV/Revenue1.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.4x
LTM EV/EBIT9.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.2x
LTM P/E9.0x
LTM EV/FCF20.0x
LTM P/FCF12.0x
LTM P/TB2.0x
LTM P/B2.1x
Dividend Yield6.5%
Payout Ratio59.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $38.05 versus fair value $43.44 (14.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Acceleration of Love Made Fresh Cooler Rollout The company is targeting 5,000+ coolers by year-end FY2026. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Private Label Competition As consumers face inflationary pressure, they are shifting toward private label cereals and snacks, permanently impairing General Mills' pricing power and volume share. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
The $3 billion fresh pet food sub-category serves as a primary growth engine, supported by a 4.8-star rating for Love Made Fresh products. Additionally, the company generates $500 million in annual HMM cost savings, which funds a 25% increase in innovation spending to drive household penetration.
Bear Case
Persistent volume declines in North America Retail (-3%) and Pet (-7%) suggest a structural shift in consumer behavior. Furthermore, leverage has risen to a 161.7% debt-to-equity ratio, and the company faces legal exposure regarding synthetic dyes and lead levels in core cereal products.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Acceleration of Love Made Fresh Cooler Rollout The company is targeting 5,000+ coolers by year-end FY2026. Successful execution here validat...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Completion of Brazil Business Divestiture Selling the Yoki and Kitano brands allows management to exit a lower-margin international platform...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
General Mills is relevant for analysis at this moment because the stock is trading at a multi-year low and 7.7x EV/EBITDA, while institution...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion via Private Label Competition As consumers face inflationary pressure, they are shifting toward private label cereals and snack...
Concern: Medium
GLP-1 Medication Impact The rising adoption of GLP-1 medications could lead to a structural reduction in caloric intake, specifically target...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is capable but unexceptional. The board is strong, featuring financial experts like Eric Sprunk (ex-Nike CFO) and Ma...
Recent Activity
2025-06-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.11%General Mills reports fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter and full-year results, provides fiscal 2026 outlook
2023-06-28SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.17%General Mills reports fiscal 2023 Q4 and full-year results with 6% net sales growth and declares 9% dividend increase
2022-09-21SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.72%General Mills reports strong first-quarter fiscal 2023 results and raises full-year outlook
2022-06-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.35%General Mills reports fiscal 2022 Q4 and full-year results with 5% net sales growth and declares 6% dividend increase
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$23
Bear
$57
Bull
$38