GL
Globe Life Inc.$142.91
Unclear
Target $133.83
Report: Mar 11, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Life • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$142.91-6.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$102.95
(28% below current)
Fair Value
$133.83
(6% below current)
Stop Loss
$82.36
(42% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$152.71
52 Week Low$109.38
Avg. 3 Month Volume503K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin51.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin26.3%
LTM EBIT Margin26.3%
LTM Operating Margin26.3%
LTM ROA3.8%
LTM ROE20.6%
LTM ROIC4.9%
LTM ROCE5.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$13.4B
Shares Outstanding78.64M
Total Debt (MM)$2.63B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$144.70M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.48B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR16.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR23.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$164.50
LTM EV/Revenue2.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.3x
LTM EV/EBIT8.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.5x
LTM P/E9.4x
LTM EV/FCF10.7x
LTM P/FCF8.7x
LTM P/TB0.4x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield0.8%
Payout Ratio7.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $142.91 versus fair value $133.83 (-6.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Bermuda reinsurance first transaction end-2025 unlocks $200M annual parent cash flow from 2027, addressing market concern on trapped capital and validating moat via efficiency gains. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from regulatory sales practice suits post-DOJ/SEC probes compressing underwriting margins from 26.3% to peer 13.1%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Cost moat delivers 26.3% margins 13.2pp above peers with $1.25B FCF funding 32.5% buyback yield; DTC tech drives 24% sales growth and agent productivity +10%; Bermuda unlocks $200M cash flow.
Bear Case
Revenue decelerates to 3.7% YoY with 20% guidance hit rate over 5 years; $50.2M net insider sales signal conviction gap; destructive pricing erodes narrow moat per peak capex cycle.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Bermuda reinsurance first transaction end-2025 unlocks $200M annual parent cash flow from 2027, addressing market concern on trapped capital...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
DTC sales re-acceleration to 7-8% total premium growth 2026 via 1M leads and tech conversion (already +24% Q3 2025), shifting sentiment from...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent SEC closure July 2025 (+6.8% stock reaction) and Q4 EPS beat (+8% NOI/share) restore credibility amid low 1.8% short interest, making...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from regulatory sales practice suits post-DOJ/SEC probes compressing underwriting margins from 26.3% to peer 13.1%.
Concern: High
Agent churn spikes first-year DTC lapses, stalling 3.7% revenue growth below 2026 7-8% guide.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate with 4/5 capital allocation but dragged by opaque comp (metrics undisclosed) and $50.2M net insider sales; 83% indep...
Recent Activity
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.79%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) a991globelifeincpressrel Globe Life Announces Conclusion of SEC Investigation MCKINNEY, Texas, July 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Globe Life Inc. (NYSE: GL) announced it received a letter today from Securities and Exchange...
2025-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.38%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document GLOBE LIFE INC. REPORTS Second Quarter 2025 Results Mc Kinney, TX, July 23, 2025 —Globe Life Inc. (NYSE: GL) reported today that for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, net income was $3.05 per diluted common...
2024-04-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+14.11%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document GLOBE LIFE INC. REPORTS First Quarter 2024 Results Mc Kinney, TX, April 22, 2024 —Globe Life Inc. (NYSE: GL) reported today that for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, net income was $2.67 per diluted common...
2024-04-17Press Release
+5.44%Globe Life Inc. Announces First Quarter 2024 Earnings Release And Conference Call
2024-04-12Analyst Target
+20.17%Firm: CFRA Analyst: Catherine Seifert Price Target: $55.00 Price When Posted: $59.09 Implied Downside: -6.9%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$111
Bear
$1
Base
$181
Bull
$143