GM
General Motors Company$78.60
Buy
Target $124.79
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Auto - Manufacturers • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$78.60+58.8%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$78.60
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$124.79
(59% above current)
Stop Loss
$75.95
(3% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$87.62
52 Week Low$41.60
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.39M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin6.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin9.9%
LTM EBIT Margin2.0%
LTM Operating Margin1.6%
LTM ROA1.1%
LTM ROE4.9%
LTM ROIC1.3%
LTM ROCE2.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$67.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$176.7B
Shares Outstanding925.00M
Total Debt (MM)$130.28B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$20.95B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$109.33B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-1.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-8.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-18.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$89.93
LTM EV/Revenue1.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit15.2x
LTM EV/EBIT47.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.6x
LTM P/E21.2x
LTM EV/FCF14.9x
LTM P/FCF5.7x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B1.1x
Dividend Yield0.8%
Payout Ratio17.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $78.6 versus fair value $124.79 (58.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Q2 2026 EBIT margin >6% on $1B warranty benefit, $0.5-0.75B regulatory savings, and 40%+ tariff offsets validates inflection and addresses market trough extrapolation. Bear case centers on Prolonged downturn with tariff offsets <30% of $3-4B costs erodes margins below 6%, impairing FCF and forcing CapEx cuts. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Transitional (12-24 Months) horizon.
Bull Case
ICE franchise funds EV bridge with $11.9B FCF TTM (141% YoY) and $26.7B buybacks yielding 50.4%; tariff offsets >40% unlock 6-7.5% margins; OnStar/Super Cruise scale to $7.5B deferred revenue.
Bear Case
Tariffs erode $3.1B gross profit (gross margin 6.3%); EV impairments recur ($2.5B FY25); China equity income volatile at $100M; leverage at 6.0x Net Debt/EBITDA limits flexibility.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Q2 2026 EBIT margin >6% on $1B warranty benefit, $0.5-0.75B regulatory savings, and 40%+ tariff offsets validates inflection and addresses m...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Onshoring completion adds 300K ICE units ($4B Tennessee/Kansas/Michigan), countering tariffs and boosting utilization vs peers' EV cuts.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 2025 earnings confirmed trough ($2.7B NI vs $6B prior) but guided 2026 rebound ($13-15B EBIT), with stock +8.75% reaction signalin...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Prolonged downturn with tariff offsets <30% of $3-4B costs erodes margins below 6%, impairing FCF and forcing CapEx cuts.
Concern: High
Balance sheet strain if leverage >6x Net Debt/EBITDA amid EV impairments recurring ($2.5B FY25).
Concern: Medium
Stewardship adequate: Proven cycle navigators with strong incentives (LTIP 75% PSUs on AAOCF/EBIT/TSR), but pro-cyclical recent buybacks and...
Recent Activity
2026-01-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.75%GM reports 2025 full-year net income of $2.7 billion and announces 2026 guidance of $10.3-11.7 billion net income.
2025-10-21SEC Filing (8-K)
+14.86%GM reports Q3 2025 revenue of $48.6B, net income of $1.3B, and updates full-year guidance downward
2025-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.67%GM reports Q2 2025 revenue of $47.1B, net income of $1.9B, and EBIT-adjusted of $3.0B
2025-04-09Market Movement
+7.67%Market/Sector Move +7.67%
2025-03-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.36%GM enters new $16.1 billion credit facilities
Valuation Table
8.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$93
Bear
$195
Base
$264
Bull
$79