GNRC
Generac Holdings Inc.$224.45
Sell
Target $185.19
Report: Feb 25, 2026Industrials • Industrial - Machinery • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$224.45-17.5%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$185.19
(17% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$241.09
52 Week Low$99.50
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.17M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin38.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin11.0%
LTM EBIT Margin6.4%
LTM Operating Margin6.9%
LTM ROA3.0%
LTM ROE6.2%
LTM ROIC7.9%
LTM ROCE6.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$11.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$12.6B
Shares Outstanding58.28M
Total Debt (MM)$1.50B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$341.41M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.16B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-2.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-13.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-21.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$238.89
LTM EV/Revenue3.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.8x
LTM EV/EBIT47.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA27.3x
LTM P/E71.8x
LTM EV/FCF46.5x
LTM P/FCF42.3x
LTM P/TB3.3x
LTM P/B4.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $224.45 versus fair value $185.19 (-17.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Data Center Backlog Realization Management must convert the current $400 million backlog into high-margin revenue to validate the growth narrative. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in residential outages. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The $400 million C&I backlog and new hyperscale data center partnerships will drive mid-teens revenue growth in 2026. The launch of PWRcell 2 and PowerMicro inverters will restore residential growth and improve margins through higher price realization.
Bear Case
Residential demand is structurally weakening as battery storage cannibalizes the standby generator market. Litigation related to the 50% failure rate of SnapRS components creates a multi-year cash flow drain and reputational damage.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Data Center Backlog Realization Management must convert the current $400 million backlog into high-margin revenue to validate the growth nar...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Litigation Settlement Resolution of the MDL No. 23-MD-3078 class action regarding SnapRS fire risks. A settlement significantly higher than...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Generac is relevant for analysis now because the stock has rallied 15% to a peak multiple of 22.9x EBITDA just as its core residential segme...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer cyclical downturn in residential outages. If power grid reliability improves or weather remains mild, the high-margin stand...
Concern: Medium
Balance sheet leverage during a trough. With $1.59 billion in debt and 59% maturing within 3 years, a prolonged downturn could force a dilut...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is weak. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Management continues to sell shares while residential...
Recent Activity
2026-02-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+17.93%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_919348.htm Exhibit 99.1 Generac Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results Data center opportunities and assumed recovery in power outage environment support expectations for strong sales...
2025-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.34%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_878327.htm Exhibit 99.1 Generac Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results Growing data center market opportunities provide counterweight to below average power outage environment WAUKESHA, WISCONSIN...
2025-07-31Analyst Target
+7.56%Firm: UBS Analyst: Jon Windham Price Target: $220.00 Price When Posted: $181.00 Implied Upside: +21.5%
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+19.61%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_845273.htm Exhibit 99.1 Generac Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results Broad-based strong shipments and margins exceed expectations during the quarter; increasing low end of full-year margin outlook...
2025-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.56%Excerpt: Source: Attachment (EX-99.1) ex_776960.htm Exhibit 99.1 Generac Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results Strong execution drives record fourth quarter net sales, significant margin expansion, and all-time record free cash...
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$169
Base
$222
Bull
$224