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GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.
$316.54SellTarget $229.45Report: Jan 14, 2026Technology • Internet Content & Information • Mature Compounder

Price History

Pelican View
Current$316.54-27.5%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$229.45
(28% below current)
Stop Loss
$140.53
(56% below current)
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A

Key Metrics

Market Data
52 Week High$349.00
52 Week Low$140.53
Avg. 3 Month Volume38.08M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin59.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin44.9%
LTM EBIT Margin39.6%
LTM Operating Margin32.0%
LTM ROA25.1%
LTM ROE35.0%
LTM ROIC38.7%
LTM ROCE38.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$3,698.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$3,726.9B
Shares Outstanding12.10B
Total Debt (MM)$59.29B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$30.71B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$28.58B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth15.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR12.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR27.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR33.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$351.77
LTM EV/Revenue9.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit15.5x
LTM EV/EBIT23.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA20.6x
LTM P/E28.0x
LTM EV/FCF50.9x
LTM P/FCF50.5x
LTM P/TB6.6x
LTM P/B8.9x
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout Ratio7.6%
About the Company

Alphabet is a collection of businesses, the largest of which is Google. The company is structured into three reportable segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. Google Services includes products and services such as ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Google Cloud provides infrastructure and platform services for enterprise customers. Other Bets includes businesses that are in various stages of development, ranging from R&D to commercialization, such as those in health, life sciences, and transportation. The company was founded in 1998 and is an AI-first company, focusing on developing and integrating artificial intelligence across its products and services.

Revenue Generation

Alphabet generates revenue primarily through advertising. In 2024, more than 75% of total revenues were from online advertising. Key advertising revenue sources include Google Search & other, YouTube ads, and Google Network revenues. Additional revenue streams include fees received for consumer subscription-based products (e.g., YouTube TV, YouTube Music, Google One), the sale of apps and in-app purchases, devices, and consumption-based fees and subscriptions for Google Cloud Platform services and Google Workspace. Revenues from Other Bets are generated primarily from the sale of healthcare-related services and internet services. The company's primary geographic markets are the United States, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa), APAC (Asia-Pacific), and Other Americas.

Investment Thesis
Executive SummaryAlphabet is navigating a high-stakes pivot from a capital-light advertising model to a capital-intensive AI infrastructure build-out, which has fundamentally broken the company's historical free cash flow profile. While revenue growth has re-accelerated to 13.4% YoY, the cost of this growth is an unprecedented CapEx cycle guided to exceed $91 billion in 2025, consuming nearly all organic cash generation. Our variant perception is that the market is overvaluing the AI narrative while ignoring the structural erosion of the core Search moat and the massive depreciation headwind that will compress margins through 2027. Furthermore, the US District Court's antitrust remedies, requiring search data sharing and limiting distribution methods, create a permanent regulatory ceiling on the company's terminal value.

Recent Activity

2025-09-03+9.14%
US District Court imposed antitrust remedies against Google related to online search.
2025-05-07-7.26%
Alphabet closed a €6.75 billion Euro-denominated bond offering.
2025-02-05-7.29%
Alphabet announced record Q4 and FY 2024 results with strong AI-driven growth.

Valuation Table

MethodImplied ValueWeightWeighted Value
DCF$278.6753%$147.42
Comps$176.9035%$62.45
Historicals$165.5812%$19.54
Total Weighted$229.40