GPN
Global Payments Inc.$77.89
Buy
Target $183.52
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Specialty Business Services • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$77.89+135.6%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$77.89
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$183.52
(136% above current)
Stop Loss
$65.93
(15% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$99.99
52 Week Low$64.92
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.78M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin72.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin48.8%
LTM EBIT Margin29.9%
LTM Operating Margin22.8%
LTM ROA2.8%
LTM ROE6.2%
LTM ROIC7.5%
LTM ROCE5.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$18.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$32.3B
Shares Outstanding279.90M
Total Debt (MM)$21.81B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$8.34B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$13.47B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-23.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-5.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR15.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR141.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$94.25
LTM EV/Revenue4.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.8x
LTM EV/EBIT14.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.6x
LTM P/E13.5x
LTM EV/FCF15.8x
LTM P/FCF9.2x
LTM P/TB0.6x
LTM P/B0.8x
Dividend Yield1.5%
Payout Ratio17.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $77.89 versus fair value $183.52 (135.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of the first $70-80 million in cost synergies from the Worldpay integration in 2026. Bear case centers on Integration failure of the Worldpay merchant network. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
The bull case rests on the successful capture of $600 million in cost synergies and $200 million in revenue synergies from the Worldpay integration, combined with the accelerating adoption of the Genius POS platform. Proponents point to the 72.6% gross margins and consistent 100% plus adjusted free cash flow conversion as evidence of a high-quality core business hidden by restructuring noise.
Bear Case
The bear case highlights the execution risk of integrating a $24 billion acquisition while carrying $21.8 billion in debt. Critics argue that the company's reliance on adjusted metrics masks the true cost of continuous restructuring and that aggressive competition from digital-native processors will erode margins before deleveraging can be completed.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of the first $70-80 million in cost synergies from the Worldpay integration in 2026. This will validate management's $600 millio...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Reduction of net leverage toward the 3.0x target. Deleveraging will reduce interest expense, which currently stands at $649.6 million annual...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Our differentiated view is that the market is pricing in bankruptcy risk while ignoring the quantifiable asset floor and the probability of...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Integration failure of the Worldpay merchant network. The mechanism of impairment would be a failure to capture the $600 million in synergie...
Concern: High
Existential liquidity and solvency risk due to the 'race against time'. If a macro recession severely reduces merchant volumes, the company...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is currently in a state of high-stakes transition. We identify a three-path Outcome Tree: 1. Status Quo: Management...
Recent Activity
2026-02-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+16.47%Global Payments completes Worldpay acquisition and Issuer Solutions divestiture, announces $2.5B share repurchase authorization.
2025-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.09%Global Payments reports Q2 2025 results with 11% adjusted EPS growth and reaffirms full-year outlook.
2025-04-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.81%Global Payments enters shareholders agreement with GTCR following acquisition of Worldpay.
2025-04-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-17.43%Global Payments announces $22.7B Worldpay acquisition and $13.5B Issuer Solutions divestiture
2025-01-09Analyst Target
-5.10%Firm: Goldman Sachs Analyst: Will Nance Price Target: $122.00 Price When Posted: $112.28 Implied Upside: +8.7%
Valuation Table
6.1/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$600
Base
$416
Bull
$78