GRMN
Garmin Ltd.$255.16
Unclear
Target $233.78
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$255.16-8.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$179.83
(30% below current)
Fair Value
$233.78
(8% below current)
Stop Loss
$184.69
(28% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$261.69
52 Week Low$169.26
Avg. 3 Month Volume970K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin58.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin30.4%
LTM EBIT Margin27.8%
LTM Operating Margin25.9%
LTM ROA16.0%
LTM ROE19.7%
LTM ROIC34.4%
LTM ROCE23.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$44.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$42.5B
Shares Outstanding192.48M
Total Debt (MM)$164.84M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.28B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-2.11B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-1.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth15.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR14.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR21.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR19.6%
Valuation
Street Target Price$270.67
LTM EV/Revenue5.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.0x
LTM EV/EBIT21.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA19.3x
LTM P/E26.8x
LTM EV/FCF31.2x
LTM P/FCF32.8x
LTM P/TB4.5x
LTM P/B5.0x
Dividend Yield1.5%
Payout Ratio39.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $255.16 versus fair value $233.78 (-8.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Mercedes-Benz Auto OEM Program Ramp This program is expected to contribute significantly starting in late 2026, potentially reversing the current operating losses in the Auto OEM segment and validating the company's domain-controller str... Bear case centers on Patent Litigation Injunction Strava and Suunto seek to block sales of the Forerunner and Fenix lines. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Vertical integration blunts tariff shocks and preserves 58.7% gross margins; 34.4% ROIC demonstrates elite capital efficiency; $2.1 billion net cash supports a 17% dividend hike and $500 million buyback program.
Bear Case
Patent litigation from Strava and Suunto threatens core revenue streams; Auto OEM segment drags overall profitability with negative operating margins; heavy insider selling by the CEO and CFO signals a valuation ceiling.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Mercedes-Benz Auto OEM Program Ramp This program is expected to contribute significantly starting in late 2026, potentially reversing the cu...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Thailand Manufacturing Facility Operationalization The new facility is expected to be operational by early 2027, providing a critical hedge...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Garmin is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a multi-year high multiple (29.2x P/E) just as it faces high-stakes patent liti...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Patent Litigation Injunction Strava and Suunto seek to block sales of the Forerunner and Fenix lines. An injunction would permanently impair...
Concern: Medium
Auto OEM Margin Compression The segment currently operates at a 17% gross margin and negative operating margin, dragging down consolidated p...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong but founder-influenced. The governance outcome tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Management continues to execute the 'Bala...
Recent Activity
2026-02-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.44%Garmin reports record Q4 and full-year 2025 revenue and profit, proposes 17% dividend increase, and announces new $500 million share repurchase program.
2025-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.48%Garmin reports record Q3 2025 revenue with 12% growth and raises full-year EPS guidance
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.44%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 EXHIBIT 99.1 Garmin announces second quarter 2025 results Company reports record second quarter operating results and raises full year guidance Schaffhausen, Switzerland / July 30, 2025 / PR Newswire – Garmin ®...
2025-04-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.44%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 EXHIBIT 99.1 Garmin announces first quarter 2025 results Company reports record first quarter operating results and maintains full year EPS guidance Schaffhausen, Switzerland / April 30, 2025 / PR Newswire –...
2025-02-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.64%Garmin reports record Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 results with 20% revenue growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$185
Bear
$293
Bull
$255