HAS
Hasbro, Inc.$97.13
Unclear
Target $43.01
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Leisure • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$97.13-55.7%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$33.08
(66% below current)
Fair Value
$43.01
(56% below current)
Stop Loss
$26.46
(73% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$106.98
52 Week Low$49.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.87M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin72.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin4.9%
LTM EBIT Margin1.2%
LTM Operating Margin0.8%
LTM ROA-5.8%
LTM ROE-52.3%
LTM ROIC1.2%
LTM ROCE1.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$13.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$15.7B
Shares Outstanding140.69M
Total Debt (MM)$3.26B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$776.60M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.49B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA10.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth13.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-7.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-42.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$111.17
LTM EV/Revenue3.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.6x
LTM EV/EBIT273.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA68.5x
LTM P/E-40.8x
LTM EV/FCF22.5x
LTM P/FCF18.9x
LTM P/TB3.4x
LTM P/B23.3x
Dividend Yield3.7%
Payout Ratio-152.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $97.13 versus fair value $43.01 (-55.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Launch of major digital titles EXODUS and WARLOCK in 2027. Bear case centers on Balance sheet insolvency or credit event. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Wizards of the Coast continues to deliver record growth (45% in 2025) driven by high-value collaborations like Marvel and Final Fantasy. The Playing to Win strategy successfully delivers $150 million to $225 million in annual cost savings, supporting a 24-25% adjusted operating margin.
Bear Case
The $3.26 billion debt load and 577.3% debt-to-equity ratio create extreme financial risk in a high-interest-rate environment. The structural decline of the traditional toy market and potential Magic: The Gathering brand fatigue from over-monetization threaten long-term cash generation.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: High
Launch of major digital titles EXODUS and WARLOCK in 2027. These titles are the cornerstone of the digital-first strategy and are required t...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Potential credit rating downgrade. Given the 12.0x net leverage and 0.35x interest coverage, a downgrade would significantly increase the co...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Hasbro is relevant for analysis now because the stock has rallied to a 52-week high of $106.98 despite deteriorating fundamentals, creating...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Balance sheet insolvency or credit event. The mechanism is a 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn in toys that prevents the company from gen...
Concern: Medium
Magic: The Gathering brand fatigue. Over-monetization and 'overprinting' of cards could alienate the core player base, leading to a collapse...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is cautious. While the board is independent and features industry veterans from Nintendo and Zynga, the incentive st...
Recent Activity
2026-02-10SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.48%Hasbro reports strong Q4 and full year 2025 results with 14% revenue growth and declares $1 billion share repurchase program
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+14.58%Hasbro reports Q1 2025 financial results with 17% revenue growth
2025-02-20SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.95%Hasbro reports Q4 2024 and full year 2024 financial results with improved profitability and earnings growth.
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.01%Hasbro reports Q3 2024 results with 15% revenue decline but improved profitability and maintains full year EBITDA guidance
2024-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.85%Hasbro reports Q1 2024 financial results with improved profitability
Valuation Table
5.3/10Directional
Scenario Range
$17
Bear
$41
Base
$67
Bull
$97