HIG
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.$137.95
Hold
Target $152.60
Report: Mar 11, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Diversified • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$137.95+10.6%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$117.38
(15% below current)
Fair Value
$152.60
(11% above current)
Stop Loss
$122.35
(11% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$144.50
52 Week Low$107.49
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.57M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin46.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin18.9%
LTM EBIT Margin17.5%
LTM Operating Margin17.5%
LTM ROA4.5%
LTM ROE21.3%
LTM ROIC5.8%
LTM ROCE5.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$37.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$41.5B
Shares Outstanding275.86M
Total Debt (MM)$4.37B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$177.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.19B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.8x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR20.0%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR35.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$152.67
LTM EV/Revenue1.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.2x
LTM EV/EBIT8.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA7.7x
LTM P/E9.8x
LTM EV/FCF7.2x
LTM P/FCF6.5x
LTM P/TB0.4x
LTM P/B2.0x
Dividend Yield1.6%
Payout Ratio16.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $137.95 versus fair value $152.6 (10.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Acceleration of Share Repurchases: Starting Q1 2026, the company is increasing its quarterly buyback pace to $450 million. Bear case centers on Social Inflation and Reserve Inadequacy: Rising litigation costs in the U.S. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
The AI-first Prevail platform is expected to drive a 100-basis point improvement in the expense ratio by 2027, while the $3.3 billion buyback authorization provides a 9% yield on current market cap. Small business pricing power remains resilient, with 8% premium growth and a disciplined 88.5 underlying combined ratio.
Bear Case
Social inflation and rising litigation costs in general liability and commercial auto could outpace premium hikes, leading to reserve charges. Furthermore, massive insider selling of $105.7 million over the last 12 months, including significant divestments by the CEO, suggests that those closest to the business see limited near-term upside.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Acceleration of Share Repurchases: Starting Q1 2026, the company is increasing its quarterly buyback pace to $450 million. This addresses ma...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Prevail Platform Expansion: The rollout of the Prevail Agency platform to 30 states by early 2027 will validate the company's digital-first...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
The Hartford is relevant now because it has just entered a new phase of its capital return program while simultaneously reaching a critical...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Social Inflation and Reserve Inadequacy: Rising litigation costs in the U.S. legal system could force the company to strengthen reserves in...
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion from Technological Disruption: Competitors with higher ROIC, such as Allstate (11.1%), could leverage superior AI tools to take...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong but requires a cautious posture due to the insider selling 'Elephant in the Room.' Over the last 12 months, insiders s...
Recent Activity
2024-10-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.81%The Hartford reported strong third quarter 2024 financial performance with 18% increase in net income and 11% dividend increase.
2024-07-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.13%The Hartford reported outstanding second quarter 2024 results with 35% net income increase and authorized $3.3 billion share repurchase program.
2023-07-28SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.03%The Hartford reported Q2 2023 net income of $542 million, up 23% year-over-year, driven by strong Commercial Lines and Group Benefits performance despite elevated catastrophe losses.
2021-03-18Press Release
+18.71%The Hartford Confirms Receipt Of Unsolicited Proposal
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$122
Bear
$168
Base
$198
Bull
$138