HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company$21.10
Unclear
Target $22.20
Report: Mar 11, 2026Technology • Communication Equipment • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$21.10+5.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Low
Entry Target
$17.08
(19% below current)
Fair Value
$22.20
(5% above current)
Stop Loss
$11.50
(45% below current)
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$26.44
52 Week Low$11.97
Avg. 3 Month Volume18.57M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin33.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin7.5%
LTM EBIT Margin-0.9%
LTM Operating Margin0.3%
LTM ROA-0.3%
LTM ROE-1.0%
LTM ROIC-0.9%
LTM ROCE-0.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$31.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$48.4B
Shares Outstanding1.33B
Total Debt (MM)$21.61B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.84B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$16.77B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth14.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR6.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-10.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$27.50
LTM EV/Revenue1.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.1x
LTM EV/EBIT-152.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.0x
LTM P/E-135.0x
LTM EV/FCF19.2x
LTM P/FCF12.6x
LTM P/TB0.7x
LTM P/B1.3x
Dividend Yield2.2%
Payout Ratio-313.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $21.1 versus fair value $22.2 (5.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of the Catalyst cost-savings program. Bear case centers on Balance sheet and leverage risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The bull case rests on the Juniper acquisition transforming HPE into a high-margin networking leader with $11 billion in segment revenue and the $13.4 billion AI backlog converting into high-margin services through GreenLake. Proponents argue that the Catalyst program will successfully restore operating margins to the 10% range by 2027.
Bear Case
The bear case highlights the massive $16.6 billion net debt load and the risk of a 'lower-for-longer' cyclical trough in traditional server spend. Skeptics point to the $1.6 billion goodwill impairment in the Hybrid Cloud unit and the negative tangible book value as evidence that the asset base provides no margin of safety.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Realization of the Catalyst cost-savings program. This program is essential to offset the margin compression seen in the server segment and...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Completion of the H3C stake sale. Proceeds from this sale are earmarked for deleveraging, which is critical for restoring the balance sheet...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
HPE is at a critical juncture following the close of the Juniper merger and the intervention of Elliott Investment Management, making the ne...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Balance sheet and leverage risk. The $16.6 billion net debt load and 5.4x net debt/EBITDA ratio leave the company vulnerable to a 'lower-for...
Concern: Medium
Commodity cost inflation and pricing pressure. Failure to fully pass through DRAM and NAND cost increases could lead to further gross margin...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is currently in a transition phase due to the Elliott cooperation agreement. The Governance Outcome Tree is as follo...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-6.76%Excerpt: Document UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D. C. 20549 SCHEDULE 14A Proxy Statement Pursuant to Section 14(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (Amendment No. ) Filed by the Registrant ☒ Filed by a...
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.70%Excerpt: | UNITED STATES | | | | | | | | | SECURITIES AND | | | | | | | | | EXCHANGE | | | | | | | | | COMMISSION | | | | | | | | | WASHINGTON, D. C. | | | | | | | | | 20549 | | | | | | | | | | | |FORM | |8-K | | | | CURRENT REPORT | | | |...
2025-10-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.14%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE COMPANY AND SUBSIDIARIES FISCAL 2025 SEGMENT INFORMATION (Unaudited) Segment Realignment REVISED AMOUNTS AMOUNTS AS PREVIOUSLY REPORTED VARIANCE Three months ended Nine...
2025-04-04Market Movement
-6.51%Market/Sector Move -6.51%
2025-03-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.97%HPE reports Q1 FY25 results with 16% revenue growth and EPS increase
Valuation Table
9.4/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$16
Bear
$32
Base
$44
Bull
$21