HST
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.$19.96
Buy
Target $31.92
Report: Mar 13, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Hotel & Motel • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$19.96+59.9%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$19.96
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$31.92
(60% above current)
Stop Loss
$17.19
(14% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$21.00
52 Week Low$12.22
Avg. 3 Month Volume8.72M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin28.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin30.0%
LTM EBIT Margin17.0%
LTM Operating Margin14.0%
LTM ROA5.9%
LTM ROE11.5%
LTM ROIC5.8%
LTM ROCE8.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$13.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$17.9B
Shares Outstanding682.28M
Total Debt (MM)$5.64B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$768.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.87B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR7.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR7.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$20.00
LTM EV/Revenue2.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.3x
LTM EV/EBIT17.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA9.8x
LTM P/E17.1x
LTM EV/FCF15.6x
LTM P/FCF11.4x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B2.0x
Dividend Yield5.0%
Payout Ratio86.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $19.96 versus fair value $31.92 (59.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on 2026 FIFA World Cup across 10 markets adds 60 basis points RevPAR lift (net +40 bps post prior headwinds), validating luxury demand inflection and addressing market trough extrapolation. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer downturn prolongs trough RevPAR <2.5% guidance, eroding EBITDA margins below flat via persistent 5%+ wage inflation outpacing ADR. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Transitional (12-24 Months) horizon.
Bull Case
Luxury RevPAR inflects 3.8% with supply discipline (capex 5.9% revenue < peer median); transformational programs deliver $19 million guarantees and mid-teens returns; fortress BS (2.6x leverage, $2.4 billion liquidity) enables $205 million buybacks at trough multiples.
Bear Case
Wage inflation erodes margins 140 bps to 14.0% below peer 19.1%; insider sales $1.33 million signal caution; ROIC 5.8% < 9.5% WACC destroys value absent cycle turn.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
2026 FIFA World Cup across 10 markets adds 60 basis points RevPAR lift (net +40 bps post prior headwinds), validating luxury demand inflecti...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
$19 million Hyatt/Marriott guarantees plus mid-teens ROI capex offset wage inflation, proving margin resilience and countering bear margin e...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
HST trades at trough 1.0x P/TB amid 7.6% revenue growth and fortress BS, with Q4 RevPAR beat and World Cup nearing maximum cyclical asymmetr...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-longer downturn prolongs trough RevPAR <2.5% guidance, eroding EBITDA margins below flat via persistent 5%+ wage inflation outpaci...
Concern: Medium
Leverage spikes >6.0x triggers dividend halt if sales proceeds not redeployed accretively within 45-day window.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship strong via veteran board (former Prologis/Digital Realty CEOs, FDIC Chair) overseeing ERM and 2.6x leverage; insider sales $1.33...
Recent Activity
2025-11-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.85%Host Hotels & Resorts reports Q3 2025 results with improved RevPAR growth and portfolio updates
2025-04-10Market Movement
-5.41%Market/Sector Move -5.41%
2025-04-09Market Movement
+11.97%Market/Sector Move +11.97%
2025-04-03SEC Filing (DEFA14A)
-9.22%Host Hotels & Resorts 2025 annual meeting notice with director elections and shareholder proposals
2023-08-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.38%Host Hotels & Resorts reports Q2 2023 results with Ritz-Carlton Naples reopening and Marriott program completion
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$21
Bear
$39
Base
$48
Bull
$20