HUBB
Hubbell Incorporated$516.98
Sell
Target $417.16
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Electrical Equipment & Parts • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$516.98-19.3%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$417.16
(19% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$533.80
52 Week Low$299.43
Avg. 3 Month Volume568K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin35.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.8%
LTM EBIT Margin20.3%
LTM Operating Margin20.7%
LTM ROA11.9%
LTM ROE24.9%
LTM ROIC35.7%
LTM ROCE21.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$26.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$27.9B
Shares Outstanding53.16M
Total Debt (MM)$2.33B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$482.50M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.84B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR16.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR18.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$526.38
LTM EV/Revenue4.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit13.5x
LTM EV/EBIT23.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA20.0x
LTM P/E29.4x
LTM EV/FCF31.9x
LTM P/FCF29.8x
LTM P/TB6.9x
LTM P/B6.8x
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout Ratio32.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $516.98 versus fair value $417.16 (-19.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Earnings Miss and Guidance Revision: A failure to meet the mid-teens data center growth expectations or a further decline in grid automation will force a re-evaluation of the growth narrative. Bear case centers on Sustained Infrastructure Supercycle: If federal infrastructure spending and data center demand exceed even the most bullish estimates, Hubbell's organic growth could accelerate, justifying the current multiple. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Secular tailwinds from the 'AI Grid' supercycle drive sustained mid-teens growth in data center components; regulatory moats and UL certifications prevent low-cost competition from eroding 20%+ operating margins.
Bear Case
Valuation at 31x P/E is unsustainable for a business growing organic revenue at 3.8%; capital allocation effectiveness has collapsed to 0.3x, with $2.4B in M&A failing to generate returns above the 9.5% cost of capital.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Earnings Miss and Guidance Revision: A failure to meet the mid-teens data center growth expectations or a further decline in grid automation...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
M&A Impairment or Integration Failure: A lack of synergies from the $825M DMC Power deal will validate the bear case regarding capital alloc...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Hubbell is relevant for analysis now because the stock is trading near all-time highs while insiders are exiting at an accelerating pace, cr...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Sustained Infrastructure Supercycle: If federal infrastructure spending and data center demand exceed even the most bullish estimates, Hubbe...
Concern: Low
Acquisition Accretion: If the DMC Power and Systems Control acquisitions deliver higher-than-expected synergies, the incremental ROIC could...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently focused on portfolio expansion at the expense of per-share intrinsic value. The governance outcome tree suggests: 1...
Recent Activity
2025-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.52%Hubbell reports Q1 2025 results with mixed performance and maintained full-year outlook
2024-04-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.01%Hubbell reports Q1 2024 results with solid performance and reaffirmed full-year outlook
2023-04-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+11.63%Hubbell reports Q1 2023 results with strong performance and raised full-year guidance
2022-10-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.33%Hubbell reports Q3 2022 results with strong performance and raised full-year guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$322
Bear
$462
Base
$535
Bull
$517