IEX
IDEX Corporation$211.54
Unclear
Target $190.44
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Industrial - Machinery • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$211.54-10.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$146.49
(31% below current)
Fair Value
$190.44
(10% below current)
Stop Loss
$153.36
(28% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$217.16
52 Week Low$153.36
Avg. 3 Month Volume855K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin44.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin26.2%
LTM EBIT Margin20.2%
LTM Operating Margin20.2%
LTM ROA7.0%
LTM ROE12.1%
LTM ROIC23.4%
LTM ROCE11.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$14.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$15.3B
Shares Outstanding75.00M
Total Debt (MM)$1.82B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$580.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.24B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-0.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-6.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$236.83
LTM EV/Revenue4.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.0x
LTM EV/EBIT22.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA17.0x
LTM P/E29.2x
LTM EV/FCF24.9x
LTM P/FCF22.8x
LTM P/TB6.2x
LTM P/B3.5x
Dividend Yield1.5%
Payout Ratio44.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $211.54 versus fair value $190.44 (-10.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Conversion of the record HST backlog into revenue. Bear case centers on Moat erosion in the FMT and FSDP segments. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
HST segment's 34% organic order growth signals a massive secular tailwind from AI and data center thermal management. Robust free cash flow conversion of 103% supports a $1 billion share repurchase authorization and consistent dividend growth (7.1% 5-year CAGR).
Bear Case
Organic revenue growth has stagnated at 1%, and GAAP margins are compressing despite $60 million in cost-saving initiatives. Recent M&A effectiveness is a lowly 0.1x, indicating that the $2.9 billion spent on acquisitions is not yet generating returns above the 9.5% cost of capital.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Conversion of the record HST backlog into revenue. HST organic orders grew 34% in FY2025, creating a significant revenue bridge for FY2026....
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Realization of $60 million in cost savings. The company identified $40 million in structural savings and $20 million in temporary savings to...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
IDEX is relevant now because it is at a valuation crossroads; the stock has rallied to $211.54 following a Q4 beat, yet fundamental organic...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion in the FMT and FSDP segments. Low-cost competitors and a shift in municipal water spending could permanently impair IDEX's pric...
Concern: High
M&A underperformance and dilution. The $2.9 billion spent on acquisitions has resulted in a negative incremental ROIC of -7.4%, suggesting t...
Concern: Medium
IDEX leadership is composed of adequate stewards for a Mature Compounder. While the board is strong and independent, and insiders have been...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.28%IDEX reports Q4 and full year 2025 results with record sales and updates 2026 outlook.
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.29%IDEX reports Q2 2025 results with record sales but revises full year EPS outlook downward.
2025-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.64%IDEX Corporation reported Q4 2024 and full year 2024 financial results with record Q4 sales of $863 million and provided 2025 outlook.
2024-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.24%IDEX reports Q3 2024 results with sales up 1% and completes Mott Corporation acquisition.
2024-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.85%IDEX reports Q2 2024 results with sales down 5% and updates full year outlook downward.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$158
Bear
$222
Bull
$212