INCY
Incyte Corporation$96.02
Hold
Target $112.94
Report: Mar 11, 2026Healthcare • Biotechnology • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$96.02+17.6%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$86.88
(10% below current)
Fair Value
$112.94
(18% above current)
Stop Loss
$53.56
(44% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$112.29
52 Week Low$53.56
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.88M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin92.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin34.2%
LTM EBIT Margin32.4%
LTM Operating Margin29.5%
LTM ROA20.7%
LTM ROE29.1%
LTM ROIC77.3%
LTM ROCE36.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$18.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$15.7B
Shares Outstanding197.44M
Total Debt (MM)$34.72M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.10B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-3.06B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-1.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth21.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR14.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR43.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR62.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$108.90
LTM EV/Revenue3.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.3x
LTM EV/EBIT9.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.9x
LTM P/E14.6x
LTM EV/FCF11.6x
LTM P/FCF13.8x
LTM P/TB2.8x
LTM P/B3.6x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $96.02 versus fair value $112.94 (17.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on FDA decision on Jakafi XR (Extended Release). Bear case centers on Jakafi Patent Expiration (2028). Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
The ex-Jakafi portfolio is growing at 45% YoY, providing a clear path to $3-4B in non-Jakafi revenue by 2030. Operating margins have expanded to 29.5%, driven by a royalty settlement with Novartis that lowered COGS to 8-9% of net product revenue.
Bear Case
The 2028 Jakafi patent cliff creates a massive revenue hole that newer products may not fully fill. Heavy insider selling, totaling $39.7M over the last 12 months, suggests a lack of personal conviction among the executive team at current price levels.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
FDA decision on Jakafi XR (Extended Release). This is critical for extending the Jakafi lifecycle and defending the franchise against generi...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Phase 3 data for povorcitinib in vitiligo and prurigo nodularis. Success here would significantly expand the dermatology TAM beyond atopic d...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Incyte is relevant for analysis now because it has just completed a massive $2.0B share repurchase and is entering a pivotal 2026 launch yea...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Jakafi Patent Expiration (2028). The loss of exclusivity for the company's primary revenue driver could lead to a rapid decline in FCF if th...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory/Manufacturing Delays. Reliance on third-party CDMOs has already led to a CRL for Zynyz due to manufacturing deviations.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is positive but cautious. While the $2.0B buyback aligns management with shareholders, the minimal insider ownership...
Recent Activity
2026-02-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.24%Incyte reports Q4 and full year 2025 financial results with record revenue and pipeline achievements
2026-02-06Analyst Target
+5.48%Firm: Piper Sandler Analyst: Allison Bratzel Price Target: $110.00 Price When Posted: $102.76 Implied Upside: +7.0%
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.29%Incyte reported Q2 2025 financial results with 16% revenue growth and multiple regulatory approvals
2024-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.04%Incyte reports Q3 2024 financial results with strong revenue growth and pipeline progress
2023-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.14%Incyte reported Q1 2023 financial results with 14% revenue growth and Opzelura approval for vitiligo in Europe
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$90
Bear
$151
Bull
$96