INTU
Intuit Inc.$419.06
Unclear
Target $428.81
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$419.06+2.3%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$329.85
(21% below current)
Fair Value
$428.81
(2% above current)
Stop Loss
$247.98
(41% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$813.70
52 Week Low$349.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.87M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin80.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin33.0%
LTM EBIT Margin28.4%
LTM Operating Margin27.1%
LTM ROA12.3%
LTM ROE22.2%
LTM ROIC56.6%
LTM ROCE22.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$119.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$123.4B
Shares Outstanding278.00M
Total Debt (MM)$6.81B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.94B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.86B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth17.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR13.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR22.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR31.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$666.75
LTM EV/Revenue6.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.6x
LTM EV/EBIT21.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.6x
LTM P/E27.6x
LTM EV/FCF18.0x
LTM P/FCF17.5x
LTM P/TB7.8x
LTM P/B6.3x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio28.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $419.06 versus fair value $428.81 (2.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Monetization of AI Agents: The transition of 3 million current AI users into paying 'done-for-you' service tiers will validate the AI-first strategy and drive margin expansion. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via IRS Direct File: The expansion of the government's free tax-filing service could permanently impair TurboTax's pricing power and market share. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Intuit's AI agents (Intuit Assist) are driving a fundamental shift in unit economics, with QuickBooks Live growing 50% YoY and payments volume up 29%. The mid-market expansion through Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES) is seeing 40% revenue growth, tapping into a $300 billion TAM where Intuit currently has only 6% penetration.
Bear Case
The IRS Direct File program represents a permanent structural impairment to the TurboTax moat, potentially eroding 20% of market share. Furthermore, Credit Karma remains highly cyclical and sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, while Mailchimp's recovery to double-digit growth remains unproven.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Monetization of AI Agents: The transition of 3 million current AI users into paying 'done-for-you' service tiers will validate the AI-first...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES) Traction: Successful scaling of the construction and vertical-specific editions of IES will prove Intuit can c...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Intuit is at a critical juncture as it integrates generative AI across its entire stack while simultaneously defending its core tax franchis...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion via IRS Direct File: The expansion of the government's free tax-filing service could permanently impair TurboTax's pricing powe...
Concern: Medium
Credit Karma Cyclicality: A downturn in the consumer credit cycle could lead to a sharp decline in lead-generation revenue for Credit Karma.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is positive but cautious due to the recent role consolidation. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo:...
Recent Activity
2025-08-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.03%Intuit reported strong fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2025 results with accelerated growth, setting guidance for fiscal 2026.
2025-05-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.12%Intuit reported strong Q3 FY2025 results with 15% revenue growth and raised full-year guidance.
2025-02-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.58%Intuit reported strong Q2 FY2025 results with 17% revenue growth and raised full-year guidance.
2024-11-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.68%Intuit reported Q1 FY2025 results with 10% revenue growth and reiterated full-year guidance.
2024-08-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.83%Intuit reported strong fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024 results with double-digit revenue and earnings growth, setting guidance for fiscal 2025.
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$248
Bear
$348
Base
$433
Bull
$419